Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
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568 FXUS63 KEAX 251121 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 621 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Near seasonal temperatures expected through the rest of the week - Lowered precipitation chances for this weekend && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 312 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Clear skies currently across the CWA with light winds, highlight the impacts of a surface high pressure just to the northwest over the NB/KS border. This set up suggests radiational cooling resulting in a potential for fog early this morning. At this time, guidance suggests patchy fog for areas along and north of HWY-36 which correlates with the current lowest dewpoint depressions. Areas that receive fog will clear out by late morning with diurnal mixing. Later today, mid to upper level troughing moving through the area will transition to a cut-off low and stagnate just to the east of the area over IL. Ridging builds in behind the low and broadscale subsidence will lead to clear skies across the area. As skies remain clear expect high temperatures to reach the mid to upper 70s across the area resulting in a fairly nice day. For the second half of the week, the tropical system Helene is expected to make landfall and track north from the eastern side of the Gulf through GA. The more recent GFS model runs have shifted the track of Helene further to the east resulting in lowered precipitation chances for this weekend. Even so, light, scattered showers are still possible Friday. An isolated thunderstorm or two is also not out of the question. However, potential thunderstorms have very limited instability to work with shown in stable lapse rates and weak MUCAPE values. The NBM 12-Hr Thunderstorm Probability also concurs as probabilities remain under 10% for Friday. To start the weekend, the Fujiwhara effect will play a role in the aforementioned cut-off low and Helene merging together forming a new low over eastern CONUS. Helene is expected to significantly increase moisture transport. Depending on how far east Helene goes will determine precipitation chances this weekend for our area. A deepening trough moving through Canada early next week with its associated surface cold front, extending through central CONUS, may help to drop temperatures. Colder, polar air filtering through the area may yield a rather chilly start to next week. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 621 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 VFR conditions are expected to remain for duration of the TAF period for the southern terminals. LIFR visibilities due to fog at KSTJ are expected to improve over the next few hours. After fog dissipates, skies will be clear with light northerly winds. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Collier AVIATION...Collier