361
FXUS63 KEAX 281135
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
635 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Quiet weather conditions and seasonal temperatures expected
  today through Wednesday.

- Chances for showers and thunderstorms return Thursday into
  early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 257 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024

A quiet morning has graced the area with clear skies and
temperatures near normal in the middle 50s to lower 60s. The
main weather focus today will be over northeast Missouri this
afternoon as a stout embedded shortwave trough dives southeast
from eastern Iowa into central Illinois. A couple scattered
showers and weak thunderstorms will potentially develop over
northeast Missouri, albeit minimal chance for impactful weather
today. Otherwise with low relative humidity, near normal
temperatures, a light breeze, and abundant sunshine, spectacular
weather looks to be enjoyed today - with an encore on
Wednesday.

Changes towards a more active weather pattern begin on Thursday and
generally remain through the end of the forecast period. Surface
high pressure shifts slightly east as the upper ridge axis cuts
through the CWA. Moisture advection commences during the day, with
modest instability returning by Thursday evening. While the
approaching upper trough will largely remain well to our northwest
and eventually north as it hugs eastward along the Canadian border
through the weekend, relatively broad/weak west to southwest flow
with several embedded shortwave troughs is projected to reside
across the Central Plains. Initial weak isentropic ascent in
combination with mid/upper ascent from an approaching perturbation
should yield precipitation chances on Thursday. An increasingly
moist environment with the aforementioned embedded waves should
continue periodic shower and thunderstorm chances Friday into
Monday. Overall confidence with respect to the details remains low
as the spread of precipitation amounts is fairly large. That said,
current model suites suggest two primary windows of the bulk of
precipitation; the first being Thursday into early Friday and
the second late Sunday into Monday. With wet grounds, some risk
for excessive rainfall and subsequent river flooding by Friday
with the initial round of convection.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 631 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024

Currently VFR at all terminals with light and variable winds. By
around 18z this afternoon, northwesterly winds should increase a
bit, especially at STJ where gusts up to 20 to even 25 knots
will be possible through the afternoon hours. Additionally,
scattered cumulus clouds are likely to develop and persist
through the afternoon hours. Winds should relax and turn
northeasterly by later this evening.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...BMW