Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Eureka, CA
Issued by NWS Eureka, CA
816 FXUS66 KEKA 311208 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Eureka CA 508 AM PDT Fri May 31 2024 .SYNOPSIS...One more summer-like day is upon us with the hottest inland valleys expected to peak in the mid 90s. Conditions in the northern areas are expected to deteriorate this weekend before a short spurt of wetting rainfalls arrives Sunday night into Monday. Southern areas will cool off but are not expected to experience any meaningful precipitation at this time. Next week, temperatures will soar to well above average from the interior to the coast, possibly reaching over 100F in some places. && .DISCUSSION...The current upper level ridge that been stagnate over Northern California for the past few days looks to be migrating east after today. We can expect our last taste of these summer-y days today with warm temperatures and breezy afternoon winds which will be strongest on ridgetops. The interior valleys are forecasted to reach high temps possibly(~50%)reaching up to 95 degree highs in the interior valleys of Lake and Trinity counties by this afternoon. Ensemble clusters indicate that a troughing pattern may set up late in the weekend and into next week. The ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) indicates a decently high signal for more precipitation than average from night Sunday through the morning on Monday. This rain event likely will have minimal impacts within the region with the National Blend of Models (NBM) indicating a 90% chance of wetting rain (>0.1 inches) for Del Norte County and a 20-70% chance in Humboldt County increasing probabilities the more north one is. Over the past few days, this probability trend as steadily increased as has confidence in this event. High-res model guidance for this event will be available tomorrow and drastically improve our ability to forecast the spacial and temporal coverage of this event. After this brief rain event, temperatures all over our area will be on a steep rise to above normal status. This will be driven by an irregularly high ridge building over the Western United States on Wednesday. Interior temperatures are expected to be around 90 on Tuesday then bump up to just shy of 100 on Wednesday and Thursday. Personally, I wouldn`t be surprised at all if we see out first 100 degree days of the year in the middle of next week as the NBM is already showing a 60-70% chance of 100+ degrees in the interior valleys on Wednesday and Thursday. Winds during these days of extreme heat are currently forecasted to peak in the afternoon with ridgetops forecasted to experience speeds of 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. On the coast we have a chance of seeing above normal, hot temperatures as well. Eureka and Fort Bragg are both showing temperatures in the mid-high 60s by the second half of next week. && .AVIATION...Abundant clear skies and VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all terminals as high pressure persists favoring dry subsidence conditions over NW California. Gusty northerly winds will prevail at KCEC with 25-30 kts this morning, increasing after 18Z up to 35kts. These winds are forecast to gradually decrease after 01/03Z. Elsewhere, light offshore E flow this morning, becoming NW at 10-15 kts after 18Z with occasional higher gusts. A weak shortwave trough will move over the area late tonight into Saturday, bringing mixing clouds. Model guidance are suggesting stratus developing along the North Coast late this evening into Saturday morning. Expect MVFR/IFR ceilings at the coastal terminals after 01/07Z, primarily at KACV. && .MARINE...Gale force gusts will continue over the outer waters through late tonight. Locally gusts up to around 40 kts are expected to redeveloped near Pt St George and downwind Cape Mendocino late this morning and afternoon. Steep waves around 10 to 13 feet are expected to gradually subside today through Saturday. For the weekend an upper level trough is expected to weaken the winds by Saturday. Sunday a northwest swell around 10 seconds will be the main wave. Initially it is expected to be around 3 feet, but will build to around 6 feet at 10 seconds by Tuesday. Sunday night or early Monday these winds are expected to switch back to northerly once again. Monday and Tuesday it looks like the northerly winds will increase some, but not get all that strong. Mid to late in the week high pressure builds back in and northerly winds will increase once again. && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA... None. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Saturday for PZZ450. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Sunday for PZZ455. Gale Warning until 10 PM PDT this evening for PZZ470-475. && $$ Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/eureka Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: https://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka https://www.twitter.com/NWSEureka For forecast zone information see the forecast zone map online: https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png