187
AXPZ20 KNHC 162206
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Thu May 16 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2150 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 1011 mb low near
10N104W to 07N112W. The ITCZ continues from 07N112W to 05N125W
to 03N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
noted from 03N to 13N E of 100W. Numerous moderate convection is
associated with the 1011 mb low from 06N to 13N between 101W and
109W. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from 02N to 06N
between 125W and 137W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Moderate to fresh NW winds and moderate seas to 7 ft prevail
across the waters off the Baja California peninsula southward to
near the Revillagigedo Islands. In the Gulf of California,
moderate SE winds are ongoinh N of 29N while NW winds of the same
magnitude are along the southern gulf. Light to gentle winds are
elsewhere over the S and SW offshore waters of Mexico. Seas are 2
to 4 ft in the Gulf of California, and 4 to 5 ft in SW swell
elsewhere.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh NW winds and moderate seas
or less, will prevail off the Baja California waters through Tue
night, however locally strong NW winds are forecast briefly
tonight between Punta Eugenia and Cabo San Lucas. Moderate winds
in the Gulf of California will diminish to light to gentle speeds
Fri morning and prevail through Mon evening. Gentle to locally
moderate winds and moderate seas are expected elsewhere across
the S and SW offshore waters of Mexico through early next week.

Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is forecast to form
several hundred miles to the south of southern Mexico during the
next couple of days. Gradual development is possible thereafter,
and a tropical depression could form over the weekend or early
next week while the system moves slowly to the west or west-
northwest, remaining south of the coast of Mexico.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle to moderate S to SW winds prevail S of the monsoon
trough along with moderate seas in mixed S and SW swell.
N of the monsoon trough, winds are light to gentle and seas are
also moderate in mixed S and SW swell.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate southerly winds are forecast
south of the monsoon trough, with light to gentle winds north of
the monsoon trough, through the end of the week. Southerly swell
moving through the regional waters will support seas of 4-6 ft
through the remainder of the week, building to 6-8 ft offshore
Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands this weekend.

Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is forecast to form
several hundred miles to the south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec
within the next couple of days, possibly increasing winds and
seas in the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador toward
the end of the week and into the upcoming weekend.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure prevails N of 10N. The pressure gradient between
the area of high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of
the ITCZ is supporting moderate tradewinds north of 05N to near
20N and west of 118W. Seas in this area are in the 5-7 ft range.
Gentle to locally moderate winds are elsewhere north of the
ITCZ/monsoon trough, where seas are in the 4-6 ft range. Gentle
to locally moderate winds are south of the ITCZ/monsoon trough
where seas are in the 5-6 ft range, except to 7 ft south of the
Equator.

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh trade winds and
moderate seas are expected in the trade wind zone north of the
ITCZ to near 20N and west of 120W through the forecast period.
Winds will freshen in the tradewind zone north of the ITCZ and
west of 130W later in the week, locally strong at times. The NE
wind waves generated from these trades will mix with a set of
southerly swell to build seas to 7-9 ft by the end of the week
through the weekend. A couple of sets of northerly swell may
approach 30N by Fri afternoon, possibly building seas to around 8
ft north of 28N at times.

$$
Ramos