Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
946
FNUS74 KEPZ 221253
FWSEPZ
Spot Forecast for Blue 2 Fire...US Forest Service
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
653 AM MDT Wed May 22 2024
Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0700 MDT on May 22.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.
.DISCUSSION...
Very dry conditions are expected throughout the week with poor
overnight recoveries under 20 percent and afternoon minimums near
10. Winds will be light and variable this morning, mainly
drainage, before becoming more southwesterly later this morning.
Speeds will top out around 15 to 20 MPH. Winds will be a little
stronger for tomorrow. Little change in the day-to-day is expected
through at least Monday.
.REST OF TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 59.
Min humidity........11 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 12 to 17 mph.
Mixing height.......7600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 13 to 21 mph increasing to around 26
mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (38100 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to very good (133100 knot-ft) in the
afternoon increasing to excellent (182300
knot-ft) late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 to 6 or low to high potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
TIME (MDT) 7 AM 9 AM 11 AM 1 PM 3 PM 5 PM
Sky (%).........2 2 2 1 4 4
Weather cov.....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Tstm cov........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 0 0
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1
Temp............50 53 56 57 59 59
RH..............26 20 18 16 13 11
20 ft wind......NE 5 SW 8 SW 13 SW 15 SW 17 SW 17
20 ft wind gust.NONE 10 21 26 30 30
Mix hgt (ft)....2900 2900 6400 6400 7600 7600
Transport wind..S 13 S 13 SW 21 SW 21 SW 26 SW 26
Haines index....4 4 5 5 5 6
Vrate kt-ft/1K..38 38 133 133 182 182
Ventrate Cat....POOR POOR VYGD VYGD EXNT EXNT
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (0-10 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 43.
Max humidity........17 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 14 to 20 mph.
Mixing height.......0 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 15 to 23 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (170600 knot-ft) decreasing to poor
(0 knot-ft) in the late evening and overnight.
Haines Index........5 to 6 or moderate to high potential for large
plume dominated fire growth.
TIME (MDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM
Sky (%).........3 3 6 5 5 9
Weather cov.....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Tstm cov........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 0 0
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1
Temp............58 54 52 49 47 45
RH..............11 12 11 13 15 16
20 ft wind......SW 20 SW 20 SW 17 W 14 W 14 W 15
20 ft wind gust.32 32 31 23 23 23
Mix hgt (ft)....7400 7400 BLW100 BLW100 BLW100 BLW100
Transport wind..SW 23 SW 23 W 16 W 16 W 15 W 15
Haines index....6 6 6 6 5 5
Vrate kt-ft/1K..171 171 0 0 0 0
Ventrate Cat....EXNT EXNT POOR POOR POOR POOR
.THURSDAY...
Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 58.
Min humidity........9 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 15 to 22 mph. Gusts up to 37
mph late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......5400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 18 to 26 mph increasing to around 35 mph
late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (35200 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to very good (102700 knot-ft) in the
afternoon increasing to excellent (174600
knot-ft) late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
plume dominated fire growth.
TIME (MDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM
Sky (%).........4 3 2 3
Weather cov.....NONE NONE NONE NONE
Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE
Tstm cov........NONE NONE NONE NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0
LAL.............1 1 1 1
Temp............43 50 54 57
RH..............17 14 12 10
20 FT wind......SW 15G26 SW 18G31 SW 20G32 SW 22G37
Mix hgt (ft)....1900 1900 4000 5400
Transport wind..W 18 W 18 W 26 W 35
Haines index....5 5 4 5
Vrate kt-ft/1K..35 35 103 175
Ventrate Cat....POOR POOR VYGD EXNT
.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.FRIDAY...
Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 40s. Highs in the upper 50s. West
winds around 16 mph. Min RH values around 10 percent.
.SATURDAY...
Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 40s. Highs in the upper 50s.
Southwest winds around 19 mph. Min RH values around 10 pecent.
.SUNDAY...
Clear. Lows in the lower 40s. Highs around 60. West winds around
19 mph. Min RH values around 12 percent.
$$
Forecaster...BROWN
Requested by...Jon Crane
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2414898.0/EPZ
.DELDT 05/22/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL jonathan.crane@usda.gov