933
FXUS62 KFFC 270654
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
254 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024



...New 06Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday)
Issued at 227 PM EDT Sun May 26 2024

Clear and fair conditions today, with some nice cumulus across the
region. A few showers with potentially a rumble of thunder are
possible in far Northeast GA. These will be aided by outflow from an
mcs moving through TN and KY, however further south into our area
will remain dry due in part to some weak CIN. With the clear
conditions, temps will be toasty with highs reaching over 90 for the
vast majority of the area.

Looking overnight tonight into Memorial Day, a line of thunderstorms
will make its way out of TN. This line will have the potential to be
severe. Current models are indicating MUCAPE ahead of the line of
~2000 J/Kg. Shear will be high as well with 40 to 50 kts of speed
shear and SRH values of up to 150 m2/s2. CAMs are having a hard time
keying into the exact timing for the line to move through, however
the HRRR has probably been the most consistent. For now will look
for storms to move into North GA around 10Z and descend southward.
The challenge will come with the evolution of the line as it
descends through the Metro. Most models are weakening the line as it
moves through North GA. This seems suspect given MCS trends, the
shear available, and how cold-pools are handled in CAMs. As such the
more likely scenario will see the line move well through the metro
similar to yesterday. This should limit thunderstorm potential later
in the afternoon. Areas where the line does weaken tomorrow morning,
particularly in areas south of I-20, a few storms could redevelop as
the cold front itself moves through and become strong to severe.
We will closely monitor the evolution of the line tomorrow. The
main hazard will definitely be wind. Lapse rates also indicate a
hail threat, and brief "spin-up" tornadoes are not out of the
question.

QPF across the area hangs around the 0.5 to 1.5" at this time,
however locally heavy rainfall is likely with right moving storm
motions.

Temperature-wise tomorrow, have opted to drop temps from model
guidance by a degree or two to account for reduced solar heating in
the morning.

SM

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday morning through next Saturday)
Issued at 227 PM EDT Sun May 26 2024

Fairly quiet weather expected for the long term portion of the
forecast.

Monday`s front should settle to the south of the CWA by early
Tuesday. The models are progging a couple of waves to move along the
old boundary, but any precip should remain well to the south of the
outlook area. By the end of the week, a ridge in the mid levels
begins to build. Suspect the models are trending towards climatology
for pops by the weekend.

Overall, the forecast should remain mostly dry with temperatures
near normal. No major changes needed.

NListemaa

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 243 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024

VFR to start TAF period. Line of TSRA currently in TN and AL will
push into the metro TAF sites later this morning, but expected to
be weakening. Best thunder chances represented by TEMPO between
11Z and 15Z. Strong winds may precede thunderstorms at metro TAF
sites, with gusts up to 25 kts. Cigs will drop as line pushes
through, MVFR expected, though periods of IFR will be possible.
Some clearing will happen through afternoon allowing for chance of
more afternoon storms, though high uncertainty around these
forming. Winds today will be SW, 7-12 kts with gusts up to 20 kts. Front
will eventually approach and pass airport, turning winds NW later
this evening.


//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...

Medium afternoon convection potential, high all others.

Lusk

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          64  88  62  85 /  20   0   0   0
Atlanta         66  88  65  84 /  20   0   0   0
Blairsville     58  79  54  76 /  10   0   0   0
Cartersville    62  86  59  83 /  10   0   0   0
Columbus        68  91  66  89 /  30   0   0  10
Gainesville     65  85  62  82 /  20   0   0   0
Macon           67  90  65  89 /  30   0   0   0
Rome            63  87  60  83 /  10   0   0   0
Peachtree City  64  88  63  85 /  20   0   0   0
Vidalia         71  91  67  90 /  40  10   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SM
LONG TERM....NListemaa
AVIATION...Lusk