153
FXUS65 KFGZ 012043
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
143 PM MST Sat Jun 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...A dry weather pattern will continue over Arizona
through the weekend and most of the coming week. Expect
temperatures to warm to the hottest yet this season by Wednesday
and Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A dry, warm and breezy day is underway across
northern Arizona. Southwesterly winds are gusting 20-30 mph while
temperatures are expected to reach just a degree or two below
yesterday`s highs. A weak trough will pass by to our north
through the rest of the weekend keeping breezy afternoon winds in
the forecast. Temperatures will decrease a few degrees on Sunday
in response to the trough passage.

High pressure over the west coast will gradually build in strength
and expand across the Southwest through the upcoming week. Rising
heights and plenty of sunshine with longer daylight hours will
lead to increasing temperatures. Our heat risk guidance is
beginning to indicate some areas reaching major heat risk by
Thursday. This includes the lower Grand Canyon, Page area and
lower elevations of Yavapai county. High temperatures by
Wednesday/Thursday will reach into the upper 80s/low 90s in the
mountains to well into the 100s (100-110F) for the lowest valley
locations.

Meanwhile, a weak cut-off low pressure circulation is forecast to
develop off the coast of the Baja peninsula. Southerly flow in
advance of the trough may bring a brief increase in moisture late
this week or the early part of next weekend. Blended guidance from
the NBM maintains a 10-30% chance for showers or storms by Friday
and Saturday when the trough ejects northeastward across Arizona.
Drier air looks to follow the trough, so it looks like a short
window for any precipitation chances. The bigger impact may be
the possibility of new wildfire starts from lightning strikes.
Temperatures should moderate during this time period due to the
trough passage and an increase in cloud cover.

&&

.AVIATION...Saturday 01/18Z through Sunday 02/18Z...VFR conditions
under clear skies continue today. Winds mainly from the SW at
10-15 kts gusting up to 25 kts during the daytime hours. Light
winds less than 10 kts overnight.

OUTLOOK...Sunday 02/18Z through Tuesday 04/18Z...SW winds continue
each day at 10-15 kts with gusts to around 20 kts, light winds
overnight. VFR conditions will continue with an increase in
mid/upper level clouds Monday night into Tuesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today through Monday...A dry and breezy weather
pattern will continue. Expect southwest winds each afternoon
10-15 mph gusting 20-30 mph. RH will drop to 5-15% each afternoon
with overnight recovery only around 30-50%.

Tuesday through Thursday...Temperatures will climb to the warmest
yet this season by Thursday. Very dry conditions continue with
daily RH of 8-15% and afternoon winds each day of 10-20 mph.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MCT
AVIATION...MCT
FIRE WEATHER...MCT

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff