Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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539 FXUS64 KFWD 241107 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 607 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 ...New Aviation, Short Term... .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ Update: Scattered elevated thunderstorms continue this morning mainly south of I-20 and we`ve made some minor adjustments upward to PoPs through mid morning. This narrow band of convection is tied to modest warm advection within the 925-850 mb layer where a tight theta-e gradient is located. The bulk of this activity should remain confined within this narrow corridor through the mid morning, although some slight southward drift is expected as this boundary drifts southward. Also, we`ve raised PoPs for the overnight hours as a secondary upstream shortwave spreads south out of the Southern Plains and a weak front moves into North Texas. High resolution guidance is much more aggressive with convection overnight tied to this weak front and strong low level moisture convergence. No other changes at this time. Dunn Previous Discussion: /Overnight through Wednesday/ Mostly clear skies and humid conditions are in place across North Texas tonight with some low clouds starting to develop across our southeast counties. Our remnant frontal boundary appears to be draped across the Hill Country at this hour, but the sharpest 925-850 mb theta-e axis is lined up just south of I-20. Satellite imagery shows an expanding elevated cumulus field developing across the Big Country, likely aided by weak warm advection atop this boundary. For the remainder of tonight, we`ll likely see an uptick in scattered showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms mainly south of I-20 into the early morning hours. Limited elevated instability should keep the coverage of thunderstorms in check a bit. We`ll have some 20-30% PoPs to account for this activity with a gradual decrease in coverage through the late morning hours. Tuesday afternoon should be relatively quiet and warm with temperatures climbing back into the upper 80s across the region. Meanwhile, a stronger shortwave trough will dig into the Southern Plains and Mid South region tonight and will send another weak cold front into North Texas. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop along this boundary Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning. We`ll have 50-60% PoPs late Tuesday night across the northern half of the CWA as this disturbance moves through. Any lingering activity should diminish through the early morning hours on Wednesday with drier and slightly cooler air filtering into the region. Highs on Wednesday will be in the low to mid 80s. Dunn && .LONG TERM... /Issued 405 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024/ /Wednesday Night Onward/ Seasonable, rain-free conditions are expected at the start of the extended forecast period as North and Central Texas remains situated on the backside of an upper level low. Highs Thursday will be quite similar to Wednesday`s, topping out in the low to mid 80s. Conditions will change slightly as the region will be under the influence of the upper level low retrograding further west Friday. As PTC9 moves inland and tracks around the upper low before becoming absorbed into its flow, wrap around moisture will be sent southward into the region, promoting low rain chances (20%) across the northeast Friday. Other than the low rain chances, slightly breezy conditions are expected as a result of this system, with peak wind gusts near 25 mph likely both Friday and Saturday. This upper level system will gradually shift eastward this weekend while ridging remains situated to the west. Increasing heights aloft will aid in warming surface temperatures, with mid and upper 80s anticipated Sunday and into early next week. Overnight lows will remain in the upper 50s to mid 60s throughout the period. Gordon && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /12Z TAFs/ A cluster of thunderstorms is moving through North Texas this morning but should stay confined within a narrow band passing between the major Metroplex airports and Waco. We`ll carry a few hours of VCTS at Waco given a slight southward drift expected through morning. Otherwise, VFR cigs will prevail at the D10 sites through the morning as the convection passes to the south. Variable winds will become light southwest this morning. Another round of thunderstorms are expected late tonight as another weak front moves into the area. We`ll have VCTS by 8Z with a TEMPO for TSRA between 09-11Z. A wind shift to the north will accompany this convective activity. Dunn && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 89 67 83 63 83 / 10 60 20 0 5 Waco 88 67 84 61 83 / 30 50 30 0 5 Paris 87 63 81 59 81 / 0 70 20 5 5 Denton 88 64 83 59 83 / 5 70 20 0 5 McKinney 89 65 83 60 83 / 5 70 20 0 5 Dallas 90 67 84 63 84 / 20 60 20 0 5 Terrell 89 64 82 60 83 / 20 70 30 0 5 Corsicana 89 67 83 62 84 / 40 70 50 0 5 Temple 89 68 85 60 86 / 30 30 30 0 5 Mineral Wells 88 64 83 58 83 / 20 60 10 0 5 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$