Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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560 FXUS64 KFWD 291929 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 229 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024 ...New Long Term... .SHORT TERM... /Issued 1245 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024/ /Today Through Thursday/ Showers and isolated storms have exited the region, and the forecast has trended much drier for the remainder of the afternoon and overnight period. The main exception will be the potential for isolated showers and storms this afternoon and evening, generally across Central Texas and portions of East/Southeast Texas. Severe weather will be unlikely with this activity given lift will be minimal in the absence of any substantial surface boundaries. However, we can`t entirely rule out an isolated instance of quarter size hail and/or damaging wind gusts if any overzealous storms are able to develop. Our attention then turns to tomorrow morning, as northwest flow aloft will bring a complex of storms from the High Plains into North Texas. Ahead of this system, some early morning showers and perhaps a few storms may develop across the region. The complex of storms should arrive at our northwestern border between 7-9 am and will continue moving east/southeast into the afternoon, with most of this activity remaining near and north of I-20. Instability and deep layer shear will support the potential for damaging wind gusts, with a lower threat for large hail. Weak low level flow will keep the tornado threat low. Any discrete storms that develop tomorrow, especially tomorrow afternoon, will have a higher chance of producing large hail. All showers and storms are expected to exit to the east mid to late afternoon, but another storm system won`t be too far behind (more on that in the long-term discussion below). Fortunately, the cloud cover and rain will keep temperatures slightly below normal tomorrow with highs in the low to mid 80s. Barnes && .LONG TERM... /NEW/ /Thursday Night Onward/ By Thursday night, the initial afternoon complex mentioned in the short term discussion above should be exiting our northwest counties. However just upstream of the departing activity, another MCS will be making its way southeast across the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. This cluster is expected to move across North and Central Texas after midnight into the early morning hours, likely impacting the morning commute. Severe storms will be possible with large hail and damaging winds the main threats. There is a lower tertiary tornado threat with this round of activity, especially along the leading edge of the line where a couple spin-up tornadoes are possible. An additional cluster of storms looks to move in behind the morning line over Friday afternoon. This line would also have the potential to become severe, if the atmosphere does not end up too worked over from the previous activity. PWATs close to 2" will promote heavy rain during this time. With already saturated soils across the region, there will be an increased concern for flash flooding going into the weekend. While the Southern Plains will generally stay within the top of the broad longwave ridge across Latin America, multiple shortwave disturbances will ride along the apex through next week bringing on and off storm chances for North and Central Texas. Ensemble guidance shows increased severe probabilities across the region through the weekend for our area, so we`ll need to keep that in mind as we go through this week. CSU severe probs also highlight our CWA each day. For now, keep an eye on the forecast each day and have your safety plan in place. Make sure to have multiple ways to receive weather warnings including your cell phone, weather radio, and outdoor warning sirens. Last but not least, temperatures over next week will increase back into the mid 80s and 90s. While ambient temperatures are near normal for this time of year, persistently high dewpoints in the low-mid 70s (close to record high values for DFW) will push heat indices closer to around 100 each afternoon Monday-Wednesday. Make sure to practice heat safety as we head into the first week of meteorological summer! Prater && .AVIATION... /Issued 1245 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024/ /18Z TAFs/ VFR will prevail through the remainder of the day along with southeast winds near 10 knots or less. Isolated storms may develop across Central Texas, so a brief window of VCTS has been included in the KACT TAF late this afternoon. However, it`s possible this activity will remain well south or east of the airport. MVFR ceilings are expected early Thursday morning with scattered showers developing across the region. A complex of storms will approach from the northwest early in the morning, arriving in D10 around 15Z or so. Damaging wind gusts will be the main concern with this activity, with a lesser threat for large hail. Additional scattered storms are expected to develop across Central Texas throughout the day, and the hail threat may be slightly higher with this activity. Showers and storms should end from west to east between 18-20Z, with VFR ceilings gradually scattering out through the remainder of the afternoon. Outside of any storms, winds will remain out of the southeast around 10-12 knots or less. Barnes && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 71 84 70 82 69 / 20 70 50 60 40 Waco 71 82 71 84 69 / 20 40 40 70 50 Paris 67 79 67 78 66 / 10 70 50 70 50 Denton 70 83 67 81 66 / 20 70 60 70 40 McKinney 70 82 67 79 67 / 20 70 50 70 40 Dallas 71 84 70 82 68 / 20 70 50 60 40 Terrell 68 82 68 81 68 / 20 70 50 70 40 Corsicana 69 84 71 84 70 / 20 60 40 70 50 Temple 71 84 72 85 69 / 20 40 30 60 50 Mineral Wells 68 84 68 82 67 / 20 70 60 60 40 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$