190
FXUS64 KFWD 241814
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
114 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Today and Tomorrow/

Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon and
evening. Some storms will be severe. Large hail greater than 2
inches, damaging wind gusts of 60-70 mph, and a low tornado threat
will exist.

Mesoscale Setup...
We`re watching several boundaries as we move into the early
afternoon. The first, and most notable, is a cold front moving
south through Oklahoma. It is currently moving through OKC/Lawton
and will continue moving south through the day. Ahead of this, a
weak pre-frontal trough (likely originating from overnight
convection well to our north) extends from Wichita Falls to
Abilene. A dryline is observed over the Big Country near Abilene
and San Angelo that will advance east through the afternoon.
Additionally, a remnant outflow boundary is currently moving
across the Red River in Montague County and extends northeast
toward Arkansas. Overtop of all of this (pun intended), a
shortwave trough is evident on water vapor satellite imagery
that will provide broad mid-level ascent over our area through the
afternoon and evening.

Timing and general convective trends...
As of this writing, the atmosphere over the Metroplex is still
heavily capped. A combination of forced ascent from the boundaries
and surface heating should gradually erode the cap over the next
few hours. The first storms of the day should develop between
~3-4 PM where the cold front intersects the pre-frontal trough.
This is expected to take place northwest of the Metroplex
somewhere between Bowie and Sherman. A few isolated, and elevated,
storms are possible over western Central Texas between 1-4 PM
where the mid-level shortwave trough interacts with the dryline.
We`ve noted a couple convective attempts in this area already
today, but the lack of strong low-level ascent and plentiful dry
air aloft is precluding thunderstorm development for now. Today`s
initial storms should be isolated, but expect the coverage to
gradually increase as we approach sunset, with the most widespread
convective activity taking place between ~7-9 PM. The storms
should also move east/southeast, slowly moving into Central Texas
overnight. Most of the storms will end in the early morning hours,
between about 1-2 AM.

Severe threat and convective mode...
The initial storms that develop will likely become supercells in
rather short order. The modified morning sounding indicates MLCAPE
values near 3500 J/kg, with some model soundings indicating CAPE
values exceeding 4-5000 for some areas later this afternoon. The
large CAPE values are aided by a very warm and moist surface, with
70-75 degree dewpoints extending all the way across the Red River.
Additionally, observed mid-level lapse rates approaching 9 degC/km
are resulting in very "fat" CAPE profiles, particularly within
the hail growth zone. While deep-layer shear isn`t off the charts,
there should be sufficient shear to support both left and right
splitting storms throughout the afternoon and evening.

The very high buoyancy supports the potential for large, some
very large (2-3 inches), hail. While the damaging wind threat
isn`t the highest threat today...dry air in the mid-levels and
precip-loaded storms will allow for damaging wind gusts from any
of today`s storms, particularly this evening and overnight when
cold pools merge and the convective mode becomes more messy. The
low level winds do not indicate a widespread threat or high risk
of tornadoes, however, low LCLs and mesoscale interactions will
locally enhance low-level shear and the tornado potential with the
most intense supercells. Opposite of the wind threat, the threat
of tornadoes will be highest in the late afternoon and early
evening.

We have advertised the potential of severe weather again tomorrow,
however we are less confident of storms in our area tomorrow. It
now appears that they dryline will be well to our west, with most
of the convective activity remaining in western/central Oklahoma.
We won`t go into much detail regarding tomorrow, and will provide
more details in future forecast updates.

Heat and Humidity...
It will be very hot and humid today and tomorrow, regardless of
thunderstorm development. We are forecasting high temperatures in
the low to mid 90s with heat index values in the low 100s both
days. Parts of Central Texas will likely meet our Heat Advisory
criteria (heat index > 105 for 2 days), but we are not confident
enough of which counties will eclipse that mark today. Due to
this, we are not planning on issuing a Heat Advisory at this
time.

Bonnette

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 417 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024/
Update:
/Rest Of The Holiday Weekend Through Next Week/

Overall weather trends and timing with synoptic features, lift,
and storm potential below still look on track. Saturday is the one
day of uncertainty as the strength of the cap will play a big role
if any storms develop at all thanks to a brief shortwave ridge
developing overhead. For now, have maintained low strong to severe
storm chances across the West and toward the immediate Red River
Valley, where very warm temperatures and lifting mechanisms will
be juxtaposed with the weakest cap strength.

We`ll continue to fine tune this part of the forecast through
tonight, as above normal temperatures occur across most of the
area.

05/Marty

Previous Discussion:
/Friday through Thursday/

The weather pattern will remain active as we head into the
weekend with low level moisture staying in place and multiple
shortwaves moving though southwest flow aloft. Scattered
thunderstorms will be possible on Friday along and ahead of a cold
front and dryline. The best storm chances will be during the late
afternoon and early evening, mainly east of the I-35 corridor. A
cap of warm air will limit/prevent storms from developing, but if
the cap breaks, storm could become strong to severe quickly,
capable of producing large hail and damaging winds. The loss of
surface heating and the passage of the shortwave will end storm
chances Friday evening.

Saturday morning should start out rain-free but another shortwave
will emerge out of West Texas in the afternoon while a dryline
approaches from the west. The best storm chances will be from the
Red River northward where the cap is most likely to break, but
there is at least a low potential for storms across most of North
Texas. Any storm that manages to develop will have potential to
become severe. Storms will shift eastward with the passing
shortwave Saturday night.

Sunday should be rain-free with no discernible source of lift on
either the synoptic or mesoscale. The passage of a shortwave
across the Northern and Central Plains Sunday night will send a
cold front southward through the region on Memorial Day. We don`t
anticipate any storms with the front since moisture will be very
limited above 850 mb. However, there may be just enough moisture
across Central Texas for a few thunderstorms Monday evening. The
front will bring a temporary end to the oppressive humidity, with
dew points falling into the upper 50s to lower 60s by Tuesday
morning. The front will lift slowly back to the north Tuesday
night through Wednesday, resulting in low level moisture return
and a return of thunderstorm chances. Storm chances will increase
Wednesday night through Thursday with the passage of a shortwave.

High temperatures Friday through Sunday will be generally in the
90s and low temperatures will be in the upper 60s and 70s. High
temperatures Memorial Day through Thursday will be slightly
cooler with mainly 80s and lower 90s. Lows will finally fall below
the 70s for most locations the first half of next week.

79

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/18Z TAFs/

MVFR ceilings have stuck around longer than expected, but still
expect the stratus to lift/scatter over the next 1-2 hours.

The main impact to aviation today will be thunderstorms that
develop over the next several hours. A few isolated storms will be
possible SW of D10 that may create deviation in the Glen Rose
cornerpost through about 20Z.

More storms are expected to develop after 20-21Z, northwest of
D10 that become more widespread as we continue into the evening.
It is now more likely than not that direct D10 impacts take place,
mainly between 22-02Z this evening. There is potential for large
hail and erratic wind gusts of 50 kts with this activity. Storms
should then move south and east after 02-03Z, with all storms
ending around 06Z tonight. In general...the northern cornerposts
will likely be impacted first, then D10 itself, then the southern
cornerposts overnight.

Another round of MVFR stratus is expected tonight while gusty
south flow prevails for much of the TAF period.

Bonnette

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    94  72  93  76  97 /  40  40   0   5   0
Waco                91  72  93  75  95 /  20  40   0   5   0
Paris               89  69  89  73  91 /  50  40   5  10   0
Denton              93  70  93  75  96 /  40  20   5  10   0
McKinney            91  70  91  75  94 /  40  30   0  10   0
Dallas              94  73  93  76  96 /  40  40   0   5   0
Terrell             90  71  92  75  93 /  30  40   0   5   0
Corsicana           91  71  93  77  94 /  10  40   0   0   0
Temple              91  72  93  75  95 /  20  40   0   5   0
Mineral Wells       94  69  95  75  97 /  20  20  10  10   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$