Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT
046 FXUS65 KGGW 021938 AFDGGW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Glasgow MT 138 PM MDT Sun Jun 2 2024 .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGES: 1) A system and associated cold front will transition into northeast Montana Monday through Monday night, which will bring a widespread chance for showers, thunderstorms and wetting rain. Strong wind gusts (40 to 55 mph) may accompany thunderstorms. 2) Breezy conditions are expected Tuesday and Wednesday, with a few isolated showers on Tuesday. A warm and dry pattern is in store for the rest of the week. WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: A theta-e ridge over Roosevelt, Daniels, and Sheridan counties has set up this afternoon, which has allowed a few showers and thunderstorms to pop up. These storms will last through peak daytime heating (about 6 PM) before ending. A dry period is expected until after midnight tonight, which is when scattered showers move into northeast MT from central MT. A surface cold front will move through Monday afternoon, so there is moderate to high (40 to 70 percent) confidence of any one location within the CWA receiving one tenth of an inch of rainfall between noon Monday and 6 AM Tuesday within showers and thunderstorms. There are isolated showers, with little accumulation, expected on Tuesday. On Tuesday and Wednesday, a tight surface pressure gradient will fill in behind the shortwave trough and surface cold front. Gusts anywhere from 35 to 50 mph are expected. Therefore, there is high (80 percent) confidence a lake wind advisory product will be issued in upcoming forecast updates for Tuesday and Wednesday. An upper level ridge will build into the area Wednesday, so there is high (70 percent) confidence of dry and warm weather occurring through Friday. FORECAST CONFIDENCE and DEVIATIONS: There is moderate (40 percent) confidence in how widespread the convection will be on Monday evening, so the strength of wind gusts from thunderstorms are also in question. -Zanker/Stoinskers && .AVIATION... LAST UPDATED: 2000Z FLIGHT CAT: VFR/MVFR DISCUSSION: There is dry weather expected for KGGW and KOLF, and a few isolated showers are possible at KGDV and KSDY through 00Z. Dry weather is expected until scattered showers move in after 06Z. Likely showers and isolated thunderstorms will move in with the shortwave trough after 21Z Monday. There is low to moderate confidence (30 to 50 percent) of these storms producing gusty winds and ceilings dropping to MVFR. SFC WIND: West at 10 to 15 knots through 00Z, becoming light and variable, becoming southwest at 8 to 15 knots after 16Z Monday. && .GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ weather.gov/glasgow