Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT
167 FXUS65 KGGW 242057 AFDGGW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Glasgow MT 257 PM MDT Fri May 24 2024 .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGES: 1) Scattered showers and general thunderstorms this afternoon with a small (5-10%) chance of a severe gust with any cell. 2) A warming trend into next week with possible widespread 80s by Wednesday. WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected across the area today with HREF max wind gusts bringing a small chance(5-10%) for some isolated severe downburst gusts south of Highway 200. Most of these showers should exit or dissipate by the mid-evening hours. Unsettled pattern will hold with two distinct periods for prolonged showers and thunderstorms. One is Saturday afternoon to Sunday evening, while the other is Wednesday afternoon to Thursday evening. Rain totals appear to vary from a couple hundredths to upwards of a quarter of an inch with a tenth of an inch being the most common output. A ridge will then build into the area allowing highs to reach the 80s by Wednesday. CONFIDENCE: Confidence holds fairly strong through about Wednesday when the second shortwave arrives and ensemble consistency begins to break apart. Surface wind fields at this time are in flux along with rainfall total grouping being wider over the ensembles. A surface low pressure system may or may not form with the disturbance`s passage with about half the ensembles producing it. GAH/TFJ && .AVIATION... LAST UPDATED: 1930Z FLIGHT CAT: VFR. DISCUSSION: Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will exit/diminish this evening. Brief gusty/erratic winds are possible in their vicinity. Patchy fog is possible in some valley locations late tonight. SFC WIND: W to NW at 10 to 15 kts this afternoon before turning light and variable this evening. TFJ && .GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ weather.gov/glasgow