Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
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467 FXUS63 KGID 210602 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 102 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 ...Aviation Update... .KEY MESSAGES... * Rain will increase across the area Saturday afternoon but especially Saturday night through Sunday morning. * Rainfall totals are generally expected to be the highest across north central Kansas where amounts could be around 1.50 inches. * The coolest day of the forecast will be on Sunday with highs mostly in the 50s. Temperatures will gradually warm beginning Monday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 338 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 Today and tonight... An upper low/trough is centered over Southern California, and an upper ridge is over the southern Plains. Another upper trough centered over Canada extends from the Pacific Northwest to the upper Midwest. Winds are mostly out of the south across south central and central Nebraska and north central Kansas. High temperatures today will generally range from the upper 80s to the lower 90s across the area. Temperatures tonight will range from the upper 50s to lower 70s with light, mostly southerly winds. A shortwave will move over the area tonight which will increase upper lift. Dewpoints will be in the 50s and 60s tonight. This lift and moisture will combine and result in a 15% to around 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms this evening through tonight. While widespread severe weather is not expected, a few storms have the potential (30% or less chance) to become marginally severe this evening into tonight. Hail up to the size of quarters and wind gusts up to 60 mph will be the main threats with these storms. Saturday through Sunday night... A cold front associated with the upper trough centered over Canada as it moves eastward will push into the area on Saturday. Gusty, northerly winds are expected behind this front. Rain and storms will continue on Saturday and will mainly be along the front. There is a low chance (20% or less) that some of the storms may become strong to severe on Saturday along and just ahead of the front. The air will become more stable behind the front as the cooler airmass moves into the area. High temperatures on Saturday will range from the low/mid 70s to the mid 80s. The upper low/trough to the west will begin moving over the central Plains Saturday night. This will increase upper lift over south central and central Nebraska and north central Kansas which will result in more precipitation. Low temperatures Saturday night will generally range from the upper 40s to mid 50s. The precipitation will continue into Sunday, primarily affecting locations along and south of the Tri-Cities area. North central Kansas is expected to have the highest rainfall amounts where some areas could receive up to around 1.50 inches. The Nebraska Tri-Cities area could get rainfall amounts up to around 0.75 inches. Temperatures will be much cooler on Sunday across south central and central Nebraska and north central Kansas with highs mostly in the 50s. Precipitation is expected to begin to decrease during the afternoon on Sunday and will continue to decrease Sunday evening and night. Low Temperatures Sunday night will mostly be in the 40s. Monday through Thursday night... The upper trough overhead will begin to pass to the east of the area on Monday with southerly winds returning. Temperatures on Monday will warm up some from the previous day with highs mostly in the 60s and clearing skies. Low temperatures will again be in the 40s on Monday night. Another upper trough will move over the region on Tuesday with high temperatures ranging from the upper 60s to lower 70s. Temperatures Tuesday night will warm up slightly with lows in the mid 40s to lower 50s. The upper trough will dig southeastward with the area generally under the backside of the upper low. Temperatures will continue to gradually warm up Wednesday through Thursday night with highs on Thursday in the 70s and lows Thursday night in the 50s. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 101 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: - Ceiling/visibility/precipitation/thunderstorm potential: High confidence in VFR ceiling/visibility through at least the vast majority of the period, with the only foreseeable possible "catch" being an outside chance of brief sub-VFR visibility if any heavier showers/thunderstorms happen to pass directly overhead late in the period Saturday evening. Otherwise, most of the period will feature only varying degrees of high cirrus, before a lower (but still VFR) ceiling roughly around 8K ft. becomes more probable Saturday evening. As for the aforementioned shower/thunderstorm potential, largely maintained continuity with previous TAFs by starting a mention at 23Z, but did go with "vicinity thunderstorm" (VCTS) instead of VCSH as there will be enough elevated instability for a few non-severe storms. - Winds: This is actually the "main story" of the period, as a well- defined cold front will slice into the area Saturday daytime and result in a pronounced directional switch to northerly and an uptick in speeds. Starting out early this morning, sustained southerlies around 10KT will prevail. Then, after sunrise direction will briefly turn westerly before the main frontal surge arrives (currently aimed around 15Z), switching winds northerly with sustained speeds commonly around 20KT/gusts 25-30KT through much of the day. Saturday evening, northerly speeds will slacken some what, but gust potential to around 20KT will remain. One last wind-related note: There could be a brief (2-3 hour) period of marginally-strong low level wind shear (LLWS) early this morning (mainly 07-10Z), but have deemed this too brief in nature/too marginal in magnitude for formal TAF inclusion. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Schuldt AVIATION...Pfannkuch