Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
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651 FXUS63 KGID 232315 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 615 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across south central Nebraska and north central Kansas late this evening and overnight. The best chances for severe weather in our area will be for south central Nebraska between 10pm and 4am, with storms ending from west to east. - A progression of systems will move through the region over the Memorial Day Weekend. These systems will bring a chance of periodic shower and thunderstorm activity to portions of the area, which could put a damper on some outdoor holiday plans. - Expect a gradual warming trend heading into mid-week, with highs returning to the 80s. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 406 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 A closed low will move into the western part of the Dakotas this afternoon and evening, with a warm front over the Dakotas. Things have warmed up fairly well, with temperatures currently ranging from the mid-70s to low 80s. SBCAPE values are expected to reach around 1000-2500 J/kg with MLCAPE values around 1500-3000 J/kg. DCAPE values of 1200-1400 J/kg are also expected along with steep lapse rates. A cold front is expected to move through the region later today, which will be the lifting mechanism for the main part of our severe weather concerns. A few isolated storms may be possible this evening, but the bulk of the severe weather issues will be mainly between 10pm and 4am. Storms are expected to initiate, congealing into a line as they cross the Hastings CWA. Strong winds up to 75mph will be the main hazard. Large hail up to ping pong to golf ball size will also be a concern. A few tornadoes embedded within the line of storms will also be possible. This will make any tornadoes that doe develop, potentially difficult to see, especially with the event occurring after dark. With the passage of the front and pressure rises in the area, there may be a few hours where winds are pretty strong following the storms moving through the area. Should this situation pan out, a few areas could see some non-thunderstorm, post frontal wind gusts nearing 50mph. Low confidence at this time in this solution. Friday, the cold front will clear the region, with the low lifting to the north, into Canada. Precipitation should be clearing the area around or shortly after sunrise. For the rest of the day, dry conditions and cooler temperatures are expected. Highs will range from the mid to upper 60s along and north of I-80 to the mid-70s in north central Kansas. Breezy conditions are expected through mid- afternoon, easing off from southwest to northeast as the low moves out. Heading into the holiday weekend, a couple of disturbances will move into the region. This may result in some periodic showers and thunderstorms, which could put a damper on holiday plans. At the moment, the best chance for any stronger to marginally severe storms would be Saturday afternoon and evening. For those planning on outdoor activities, continue to monitor the forecast through the weekend. Temperatures warm up heading into Tuesday and Wednesday, with highs returning to the mid-70s to low 80s. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 608 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 VFR conditions with SSE winds gusting to 25-30 kts will only continue until around 05Z tonight. By then, a cold front moving across the area will bring strong to severe thunderstorms as well as a wind shift to NW behind the front. These thunderstorms may well be severe with large hail, damaging winds (I put gusts to 55 kts in the TAFs but they may be even stronger), and isolated tornadoes. The most likely timeframe for +TSRA at the TAF sites will be approximately from 24/04Z to 24/08Z. Visibility will likely be restricted as these storms move over the sites as well. Behind the front Friday morning, NW winds will continue to gust to 25-30 kts through the day, but should diminish to around 9-12 kts by the end of the period. VFR ceilings/visibility are expected to return shortly behind the passage of the thunderstorms early Friday morning. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Wekesser AVIATION...Hickford