363
FXUS64 KHGX 312034
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
334 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 334 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

Things have mostly stabilized behind this mornings storm complex.
Seeing some sun re-emerge, but chances are that things are a bit too
overturned to see much more than an isolated cell or two prior to
sunset. Looking upstream at water vapor imagery, nothing much of
significance is noted that might impact the area tonight...though
with a wnw/nw flow aloft prevailing, we`ll keep an eye on things.
With wet ground, light winds and pcldy conditions I`d look for some
patchy fog development overnight.

Wind flow was disrupted for a good while behind this morning`s storm
complex. They`re now beginning to swing back around to the
southeast. As such, look for PW`s to gradually recover back to around
2" Saturday. Combination of a narrow zone of speed convergence, daytime
heating and eventually a seabreeze...look for sct tstm development
by mid morning closer to the coast - expanding inland throughout
the day. Shear isn`t anything to write home about, but would
anticipate a few isolated strong-severe pulse cells along the
potential for heavy downpours.

As previously stated, trying to narrow down timing/location as to
where more significant impulses embedded in the upper flow might
generate more organized convection is a tough challenge. At this
time, we might look toward the late night hours Saturday night.
Most guidance doesn`t show much making to the local area, but
worth keeping an eye on any West Texas convection to make sure. 47

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 334 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

Another mid level shortwave is expected to slide over Texas on
Sunday, bringing an additional round of showers/thunderstorms that
afternoon. The environment still looks to hold sufficient moisture,
shear and instability to produce a few stronger storms, though
currently these storms don`t appear to be as widespread/potent as
these storms of recent.

Diminishing rain chances and increasing temperatures can be expected
early next week as ridging builds over Mexico. Impulses riding the
peripheral of this ridge could still bring some isolated
showers/storms on Monday, mainly in areas north of I-10 closer to
the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods area. Stronger capping on
Tuesday/Wednesday may greatly suppress rain chances on those days.
Along with the stronger cap, NAEFS and GEFS 850mb temperatures are
forecasted to surpass the 90th climatological percentile on these
days (even the 97.5th in some spots). The latest suite of global
models still suggest 850mb temperatures reaching the 20-26C range
during this period, with robust SW flow in the lower levels. This
all looks to bring hotter conditions during this early/mid week
period, with highs reaching the upper 80s to mid 90s on
Tuesday/Wednesday. Persistent onshore winds are also progged to keep
dewpoints in the mid/lower 70s during this period, making conditions
exceptionally humid. Heat indices will be in the upper 90s/triple
digits on Sunday, rising to 101-108 degrees on Tuesday & Wednesday.

Those with outdoor plans next week should be mindful of the
increasing heat risk. Practicing heat safety will become especially
important in the coming weeks/months as we head deeper into the
climatological summer. Remember to drink plenty of fluids, wear
lightweight clothing and be sure to take breaks out of the sun. Heat
is the #1 weather-related killer in the U.S. each year, so be sure
to not underestimate the danger it poses.

Global models show an elongated trough near the Upper Great lakes
attempting for force a weak cold front southward into the Southern
Plains/ArkLaTex region late in the week. If the front can make it to
our area, it could provide some relief from the heat. Though as
we`ve mentioned before, frontal systems have a tendency to stall out
before reaching SE Texas during this time of the year, so the
chances of getting some dramatic relief from the warm weather are
low, especially as models trend slower/later with the frontal.
Still, the aforementioned upper trough may weaken the ridge`s
influence over SE Texas to provide some mild relief for Thursday.
Though, compressional heating and pooling moisture ahead of the
aforementioned boundary could negate this relief, and potentially
even exasperate the heat risk.

03

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

Still have a thin band of shra & iso tsra that might track toward
LBX/GLS in the next few hours, but overall atmosphere is mostly
stabilized from morning storms. Anticipate VFR conditions to
prevail through the rest of the day. Winds will be squirrelly for
a bit, but should transition back to the southeast this
afternoon. With winds dropping off tonight and wet ground, suspect
we`ll see some patchy fog development. Have included the mention
in most TAFs, but uncertainty exists on just how low vsbys will
get. Pattern is such we`ll need to keep an eye upstream for weak
disturbances that could trigger additional storms, but right now
it appears the next decent shot will come in the mid morning and
afternoon hours Saturday. 47

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 334 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

Elevated winds near 20 knots and seas up to 7 feet have developed in
the wake of this morning`s storms. Small Craft should remain in
harbor until conditions improve later tonight. Afterwards, light to
moderate onshore flow and seas of 3 to 6 feet should prevail into
the upcoming work week. Caution flags may be needed at times,
especially during the overnight hours. Rounds of showers and storms
will be possible over the weekend, with rain chances tapering off
next week. Some of these storms could become strong to severe,
producing damaging wind gusts and locally elevated seas. Persistent
onshore flow will also bring a high risk of rip currents over the
next several days.

03

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  73  89  75  90 /  30  50  20  20
Houston (IAH)  75  89  76  90 /  40  60  20  20
Galveston (GLS)  80  86  80  87 /  30  30  20  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ330-335-
     350-355-370-375.

&&

$$