931
FXUS64 KHGX 022054
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
354 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 354 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Activity has begun to develop over our north/northeastern CWA this
afternoon, but coverage, so far, has been limited. But will likely
maintain scattered POPs for these areas through the evening hours,
as daytime heating persists. Showers/storms should decrease by to-
night with the passage of the short wave and loss of heating, with
the best rain chances moving N/NE of the CWA. So for SE TX, mostly
cloudy skies should prevail with warm/quiet/humid weather in place
for the rest of the overnight period. Lows will range from the mid
to upper 70s for most areas, near 80 along the immediate coast.

Mon is expected to be another warm/humid day with highs generally in
the lower 90s...upper 80s at the beaches. Rain chances will continue
to be tricky as much of the guidance is still having issues with the
timing of the next MCS from the west. Current runs are pointing to a
late Mon night passage across Central TX to the east. This still has
the best/highest POPs for areas going further north into our CWA. Of
note, SPC`s Day 2 Outlook does include the northern parts of Houston
county in a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5)...with a Marginal Risk (level
1 of 5) for locations generally north of a line from Caldwell-Conroe-
Cleveland. Otherwise, lows to range from the mid to upper 70s across
much of the area, around 80 along the immediate coast once again. 41

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 354 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

As a more swly flow aloft takes shape and H85 and H7 temps climb,
look for warmer weather and lower chances of rainfall across the
region for a good part of the week. Though rain chances aren`t
exactly nil, they should be getting to the point of mostly not
mentioning as subsidence/capping takes shape.

Mid/upper ridge expands northward from Mexico into the Rockies
and West Texas heading into the second part of the week. Troffing
to our east and a northerly flow aloft may allow a backdoor front
to get closer to the area Friday-ish with some 2"+ PW`s possibly
pooling ahead of it. How close it gets, or what capping and temp
profile aloft looks like, remains to be seen. But that might be
the next timeframe to look at in regards to the potential return
of mentionable rain chances. 47

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 106 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Radar remains mostly quiet at this time, but it does appear that some
of the progged scattered activity is beginning to to develop. Daytime
heating, an upper level disturbance along with the sea breeze being a
large part of this. The bulk of this convection should start at/along
the I-10 corridor before tracking slowly north through the afternoon.
Some of the stronger storms will be capable of strong wind gusts. For
now, still expecting much of this activity to weaken/dissipate by the
evening hours with the loss of daytime heating. IFR/MVFR ceilings are
going to be returning tonight into Mon morning. 41

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 354 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

A tightening pressure gradient will lead to increasing southerly
winds and building seas into midweek. Risks for rip currents along
area beaches will be rising as well. Winds and seas should begin
diminishing as we head into the second part of the work week.
Shower and thunderstorm chances, though not zero, should be lower
than we have seen the previous several days.  47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  77  92  77  95 /  20  20  20  10
Houston (IAH)  78  91  79  93 /  20  10  10  20
Galveston (GLS)  82  87  81  88 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution from 7 PM CDT this evening
     through late tonight for GMZ350-355-370-375.

&&

$$