981
FXUS64 KHGX 132320
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
620 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 333 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024

The brief reprieve of slightly lower humidity levels is soon to come
to an end as weak high pressure becomes situated over the Central
Gulf, promoting the return of a seasonably normal onshore flow
pattern. Latest models continue to indicate a surge of low-level
moisture arriving onshore over the next 12-24 hours as a result of
this pattern shift (GLS in fact has already reported a surface dew
point of 80 this afternoon). This will be accompanied by an increase
in tonight`s forecast low temperatures, with most of the area
sitting in the mid to upper 70s.

Warm and humid conditions prevail on Saturday, with much of the area
poised to see highs in the mid/upper 90s and heat index values in
excess of 100 during the afternoon. While this is unlikely to
warrant a Heat Advisory, those with outdoor plans tomorrow should
nonetheless consider necessary heat safety precautions, especially
after a fairly long period of cooler and slightly drier weather.
Rainfall chances remain very low, aside from the potential for a few
late afternoon evening showers and storms across the Piney Woods
associated with wrap-around moisture from the former Francine.
Otherwise, forecast soundings continue to indicate the presence of a
fairly stout subsidence inversion which should work to inhibit
diurnal convection. Overnight lows on Saturday once again will sit
in the mid to upper 70s.

Cady

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 333 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024

Ridging aloft remains in place through next week leading to a rather
prolonged period of hot and dry conditions. There`ll be at least a
couple of opportunities for some isolated showers/storms though. On
Sunday, we`ll have a weak frontal boundary across portions of the
Piney Woods from the remnants of Francine. Moisture convergence
along this boundary will elevated low-level moisture, but the
question is will it be able to overcome the subsidence inversion
layer? I`m leaning towards no, but these things are never a
guarantee so I`d put rain chances at 10-20% at most. While that`s
going on, we`ll have remnants of what is now Tropical Storm Ileana
in the Eastern Pacific drifting through Texas from west to east.
This`ll bring increased low-level moisture from the west...but the
same question/answer before applies. Isolated showers/storms can`t
be ruled out early next week, but there is a far greater probability
that you won`t see any rain.

850mb temperatures will remain well above the 90th percentile (GEFS)
through next week, and with persistent subsidence mixing those above
normal temperatures to the surface...we`ll see...well above normal
temperatures at the surface. There is a slight downward trend as we
go through the week though with high temperatures starting out in
the mid to upper 90s then gradually becoming low to mid 90s.
However, I wouldn`t be surprised to see those low to mid 90s get a
slight upward nudge as we get closer...especially for portions of
the Brazos Valley. With model trends showing dew points mixing out
into the 60s each afternoon, the air should dry out enough to
support slightly hotter temperatures.

What`s driving this extended period of hot/dry weather? Well it`s
Friday the 13th, so to stick with the spooky theme...the ghost of
Francine (at mid-levels) will combine with possible development
along the coast of the Carolinas develops into a cutoff low over the
eastern CONUS. While that`s going on, an upper level trough with an
embedded upper level low moves in from the western CONUS. Model
trends are still pointing towards an omega block pattern developing
midweek, which would keep the Central/Southern Plains in a perpetual
ridging aloft pattern. So...don`t be too surprised if the forecast
continues to trend hotter and drier for next week. Speaking of heat,
we talked about the increased low-level moisture a little bit
earlier. That moisture is going to stick around through the week, so
we`ll be keeping an eye on heat indices. At the moment, we`re
looking at heat indices of 103-107F at the most, which is below our
threshold for a Heat Advisory ( 108F). It`ll definitely be hot
enough to notice it though, so be sure to practice heat safety. On
the plus side, next week is the last full week of astronomical
summer. If we could pass along that message to Mother Nature, that`d
be great...

Batiste

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 610 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024

VFR conditions will generally prevail through with some SCT to BKN
mid and high level clouds. There may be some patchy fog reducing
visibility to 4-6 mi at times during the predawn hours at CXO (and
possibly SGR and UTS), but any fog that develops will quickly
dissipate after sunrise. Light and variable winds will continue
through the night becoming west-southwesterly through the morning
at around 6-10kt. The seabreeze will cause a southerly wind shift
in the afternoon/evening at GLS, LBX, SGR, HOU, and possibly all
the way up to IAH.

Fowler

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 333 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024

Benign marine conditions will continue with light onshore winds and
low seas prevailing through the weekend and into next week. Isolated
showers/storms will be possible going into early next week across
the Gulf waters.

Batiste

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  75  98  74  98 /   0  10  10  10
Houston (IAH)  77  96  76  96 /   0  10  10  10
Galveston (GLS)  80  88  77  87 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cady
LONG TERM....Batiste
AVIATION...Fowler
MARINE...Batiste