225
FXUS66 KHNX 261953
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
1253 PM PDT Sun May 26 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

1. There is a 25 to 35 percent chance for thunderstorms in the
Sierra Nevada Monday afternoon and evening.

2. A warming trend will result in afternoon maximums 3 to 6
degrees above normal beginning Monday and lasting through the
week.

3. There is a moderate (30 to 50 percent) probability for
temperatures to reach or exceed 95 degrees Friday and Saturday
in the San Joaquin Valley.

4. Gusty west winds are expected Tuesday through Friday over
the Mojave Slopes and Kern County Desert.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Marine layer deepened to around 3000 ft and helped keep high
temperatures in the San Joaquin Valley below climatological
normals yesterday. The layer has decreased to near 2000 ft this
morning and under weak flat ridging aloft, our temperatures are
trending upward. High temperatures this afternoon are on track
to top out right around normal. Sunny skies prevail, with just
some Cu popping over the Sierra during the afternoon.

The warmup continues for Memorial Day, with around 50 to 70
percent probabilities for high temperatures of at least 90
degrees for most San Joaquin Valley locations. Weak shortwave
energy tracking inland will also create enough instability to
potentially trigger a few thunderstorms over the Sierra Nevada
Monday afternoon and evening. National Blended Model
probabilistic guidance for thunder is running around 25 to 35
percent for Monday.

A low pressure trough is progged to swing inland mainly to our
north by Tuesday, with lingering probabilities of thunder near
the Sierra crest running around 10 to 15 percent. High
temperatures Tuesday will be similar to Monday. generally around
3 to 6 degrees above normal. Just a degree or so of cooling is
on tap for Wednesday as the trough continues to trek eastward.
Expect increased gusty winds with the passing trough Tuesday and
Wednesday. National Blended Model guidance shows around 20 to
40 percent probabilities for wind gusts of at least 45 mph along
the Mojave Desert Slopes during the afternoons and evenings on
Tuesday and Wednesday. Shorter range high resolution models will
give better ideas on expected winds for these days as we get
closer.

A warming trend will ensue for the second half of the week under
high pressure behind the departing trough. By Friday and Saturday,
high temperatures will be around 10 degrees above normal. San
Joaquin Valley highs will be mostly in the mid to upper 90s,
with a few triple digit highs in the desert zones. Probabilities
for high temperatures of at least 95 degrees in the San Joaquin
Valley on Friday are around 30 to 50 percent. Slight cooling
begins next Sunday as a shortwave trough impacts the region.


&&


.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail across central California over the
next 24 hours.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...

None.



&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
and/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

JEB/BSO

weather.gov/hanford