951
FXUS66 KHNX 020856
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
156 AM PDT Sun Jun 2 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

1. Gusty west winds will continue through this morning for the
Mojave Desert Slopes and redevelop each afternoon and evening
until Monday.

2. Following a cool down until Monday, a more significant
warming trend will take place starting midweek for most of the
San Joaquin Valley, lower Sierra Nevada foothills, and the Kern
County Desert. An Excessive Heat Watch remains in effect for
these areas for Wednesday and Thursday, as the probabilities for
105-degree readings are generally high for this time of year.

3. Hot temperatures will continue Friday into next weekend with
little, if any, relief.

4. The anticipated heat for later this week could lead to
increased snowmelt from the Sierra Nevada with colder and higher
flows along rivers and waterways.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today`s afternoon high temperatures won`t be as warm as on
Saturday, thanks to a weak upper-level trough that has been
passing over the Golden State. Also, gusty westerly winds will
continue to buffet the Mojave Desert slopes through mid-morning
where gusts reach around 45 to 55 mph. Flow aloft becomes zonal
this evening into Monday. Given the time of year, this portion
of Kern County will observe gusty winds as long as we remain in
a troughy or zonal pattern. In addition, latest high resolution
guidance paints probabilities of around 50-80 percent again
late this afternoon until this evening, though with a more
widespread area for Monday afternoon/evening. Otherwise, Monday
will be seasonably warm in most locations, or with readings
similar to today.

The ridge builds over the region beginning Tuesday and will
allow a significant increase in temperatures by Wednesday. The
main weather concern for this week will be the excessive heat on
Wednesday and Thursday, as the hottest temperatures for the
year are on tap. Widespread triple digit heat will arrive in
the Central Valley on Wednesday, and highs are unlikely to stop
at just 100 degrees in many locations. In terms of maximum
temperatures of 105 degrees or higher, the probability remains
around 35-65 percent in the SJ Valley for both Wednesday and
Thursday, except even higher (75-95 percent) in the desert areas
of Kern County. Low temperatures show similar chances to be in
the 70`s by Thursday morning. In addition, we are forecasting a
slight chance of isolated afternoon and evening thunderstorms
in the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada beginning
Thursday. There will be plenty of moisture due to snow melt,
and some weaknesses in the longwave ridge pattern or embedded
disturbances cannot be ruled out.

As for Friday through next Sunday, above average temperatures
will continue. Friday won`t be much different from Thursday,
based on probabilities of continued highs of 105 degrees and
above, as well as warm overnight lows (mainly the 70`s). With
the exception of the Kern County desert, highs of 105 degrees or
hotter have lower probabilities of occurrence on Friday than on
Thursday, including 20-40 percent for Friday in the Central
Valley. It appears triple digit heat lingers into the weekend in
the SJ Valley, as the blended guidance shows chances for 100
degrees or higher at 20-40 percent. The chances for 105 degrees
or hotter readings are still about 40-70 percent chance for the
Kern County desert areas on Friday. Also, there remains about
20-40 percent of highs at least 105 degrees for the desert on
Saturday. At this time, the ridge will gradually weaken, though
it probably won`t completely leave us any time soon. So, it
won`t be much cooler even by next weekend. Isolated Sierra
Nevada thunderstorm chances continue Friday through next weekend
each afternoon and evening.

The expected increased snow melt is likely to lead to higher
flows along streams and rivers, and we will continue to monitor.
While cold and fast moving water has already been happening, it
may be a bigger issue next week as the water will become even
more inviting due to the anticipated heat later this week.
Use additional care if heading into the water, and heed any
lake and river closures.

&&


.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail across the Central California
interior for the next 24 hours. Gusts around 45 knots are
possible in the Mojave Desert Slopes until 15Z Sunday and
again after 23Z Sunday.


&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
None.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is medium.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
and/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 8 AM PDT this morning for CAZ338.

Excessive Heat Watch from Wednesday morning through Thursday
evening for CAZ301>307-309>317-319-321-337-339.
&&

$$

BSO/MM

weather.gov/hanford