Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
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717 FXUS64 KHUN 011710 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 1210 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... (Rest of Today) Issued at 1016 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Various bands of showers/embedded tstms continue to move NNE thru much of the central TN Valley this Sat morning. The air mass has been fairly worked over across much of the area and the prob for much recovery this afternoon looks minimal given a persistent cloud deck. Afternoon highs may struggle to surpass the lower/mid 70s, which is around 10F below normal for this time of the yr. SBCAPE values this afternoon may likewise struggle to reach 1K J/kg, which will tend to limit the prob for more organized tstms. Effective Bulk Shear values near 30kt may at least allow for some gusty winds with a few of these storms this afternoon while PWATs approaching 1.60 inches may translate into some brief heavy rain. The overall prob for stronger tstms this afternoon though looks fairly meager, although numerous to widespread showers/embedded tstms will remain in the forecast for much of the day. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Monday night) Issued at 329 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Rain chances will begin to decrease tonight and remain lower on Sunday, but still expect to see some scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms through the remainder of the weekend given the moist airmass in place. Low to medium chances (30-50%) for showers and storms are forecast on Sunday afternoon with afternoon highs a little warmer in the low to mid 80s. Will see a break in the rain by Sunday night into Monday morning, where the primary concern will be fog development overnight given the recent rainfall and light winds. Expect low chances (20-30%) for diurnally driven showers and storms Monday afternoon with highs climbing back closer to seasonal norms, topping out in the mid to upper 80s. Overnight lows will be in the mid to upper 60s through the short term period. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Friday) Issued at 329 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 An unsettled pattern will persist through mid week. Another shortwave will slide into the TN Valley on Tuesday bringing low/medium chances (30-50%) of showers and thunderstorms. Upstream, an upper level low will ride just north of the U.S/Canadian border and phase with a shortwave located in the Northern Plains on Wednesday. The associated sfc low will have a cold front extending all the way down the MS Valley. This set up will be slow to make eastward progress due to the blocky pattern just east of the Great Lakes. Prefrontal showers and storms will arrive on Wednesday and believe coverage and the threat for heavy rainfall will increase if another shortwave ends up scooting through vs staying off to our north. The front will push through some time on Thursday and POPs will taper off behind it. Timing still isn`t great on exactly when the front will move through,as this model cycle has it earlier on Thursday than yestrday`s run. Will monitor trends to adjust timing and storm hazards. Otherwise, daytime highs will run in the low/mid 80s with lows in the upper 60s ahead of the front. Behind the front on Friday, we won`t see a drastic temp change but will have highs in the lower 80s with lower humidity and lows in the lower 60s. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1210 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 MVFR conds are expected to continue into the early evening hrs, as additional shra/tsra move NNE across parts of the area. Some break in the rainfall is possible later this evening before additional shra/tsra develop early Sun morning. Even with the tempo break in precip, MVFR cigs look to prevail into Sun. SSE winds near 10-12kt with higher gusts will also become light/var this evening. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...09 SHORT TERM....25 LONG TERM....JMS AVIATION...09