Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana
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706 FXUS63 KIWX 161631 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 1231 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and storms with local downpours this afternoon into Saturday. - Very warm Sunday into Tuesday with highs in the low to mid 80s. - Strong to possibly severe storms Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 332 AM EDT Thu May 16 2024 A weak upper level system will move northeast and bring additional chances for showers and storms from this afternoon into Saturday. The environment will be similar to the one early this week with high precipitable water values, low CAPE/instability and low shear. Locally heavy downpours are likely, but severe storms are not expected. A diurnal flare in the activity is likely Friday and Saturday as daytime heating helps with some destabilization. An upper level ridge will build into the region early next week. Temperatures will rise much above normal in the low to mid 80s with upper 80s possible. Given the position of the upper ridge and the ridge strength, have cut the model blend shower/storm chances for Monday. Otherwise, a strong upper level system will approach Tuesday in tandem with an EML (Elevated Mixed Layer) and should set the stage for strong to severe storms Tuesday. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1231 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024 VFR/dry conditions and light southerly winds this afternoon will give way to chances for scattered showers late this afternoon into tonight as an upper level shortwave lifts in from the Mid MS Valley. An isolated thunderstorm will also possible 22-03z at mainly KSBN. VFR conditions will generally persist outside of any convection into most of tonight. However, a sfc trough does edge into nw IN late tonight into tomorrow morning with IFR to low MVFR cigs possible along it, highest probs at KSBN. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...None. OH...None. MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Skipper AVIATION...Steinwedel