823
FXUS64 KJAN 240922
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
422 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024

...New DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 418 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024

Today and Tonight:

A 995 mb low pressure system continues to slowly push northeast
towards North Dakota this morning. As the sfc low continues to
slowly push northward towards North Dakota, a 1012 mb sfc high will
develop across the western CONUS before slowly tracking east towards
the Central Plains later this afternoon. This sfc high will help
push a frontal boundary over KS/MO/AR areas and keep storm chances
low across central MS through the afternoon. Went ahead and made a
few modifications to the forecast and lowered PoP chances for areas
south of the Hwy 82 corridor (5-10%). Areas along and north of Hwy
82 could see some scattered showers and storms around this
timeframe. Heading into the evening and overnight hours, a shortwave
trough over east Texas interacting with the aforementioned frontal
boundary will trigger additional rounds of strong to severe storms
along and north of the Hwy 82 corridor. These storms have the
potential to spread southeast toward our forecast area later this
evening. There are sill some discrepancies regarding the timing of
this system, however it appears that the best chance for any severe
potential will start around 7PM this evening. The Slight Risk for
severe thunderstorms has been extended further east into this
evening for areas in far southeast AR, far northeast LA, and
northern MS. The Marginal Risk has been extended further south to
cover this potential round of severe weather. Damaging wind gusts
will be the primary threat, however hail up to golf ball size along
with a few tornadoes will also be possible. /CR/

Saturday through Thursday: Saturday morning the cold front will be
stalled across northern Mississippi. Surface ridging will be nosing
west across the northern Gulf of Mexico while our region will
continue to reside on the northern periphery of a fairly stout mid
level ridge across old Mexico and the western Gulf. This will help
maintain and warm moist airmass over our CWA. Models appear a little
faster this run but a shortwave topping the mid level ridge will
combine with daytime heating, our moist airmass and the stalled
front to develop storms across the northern half of our CWA.
Isolated severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts will be
possible during the day and mainly across our Highway 82 corridor.
This activity looks to end by evening as the shortwave shifts east
over Alabama. Saturday night and Sunday are currently expected to be
dry for our CWA but another shortwave tracking across the Plains
Saturday night will help develop a surface low and associated cold
front that will be nearing the mid Mississippi valley by noon
Sunday. The old stalled front will return north of our CWA during
the day as a warm front. Our whole CWA will be in the warm sector
Sunday evening when the cold front will be approaching from the
northwest. Storms developing along and just ahead of the cold front
will have the potential of producing severe storms capable of
damaging wind gusts, hail to golf ball size and perhaps a brief
tornado or two over our northern zones with lower threats south to
Interstate 20 Sunday night. By sunrise Monday morning the potential
for severe storms and rain chances will have ended but rain chances
will return Monday afternoon and continue into the evening until the
cold front clears the CWA and a surface high builds in from the
northwest resulting in cooler and drier air back over our CWA.

By Tuesday afternoon, dry weather along with cooler temperatures are
expected across the region. Ridging surface and aloft look to build
over the region by mid week and then dominate through Thursday
night. /22/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1256 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024

VFR ceilings and conditions will occur across all sites to start off
the TAF period. Current radar scans show some scattered showers
pushing east across the Pine Belt. Some redevelopment will be
possible at GLH, GWO, and GTR starting around 08Z Friday. Confidence
remains too low at other TAF sites to introduce this TAF cycle. Some
low MVFR stratus is possible overnight between 08Z-15Z Friday, with
some potential IFR stratus across southeast TAF sites. Conditions
will start to improve to VFR flight categories after 15Z Friday as
ceilings start to improve. Light southerly winds, generally around
10mph & gusts up to 20mph, are psbl through Friday afternoon. By
Friday evening, wind gusts will be near 15 mph. /CR/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       91  72  92  73 /  10  10  10   0
Meridian      91  71  93  72 /  20  20  20   0
Vicksburg     91  71  92  73 /  10  20  10   0
Hattiesburg   92  72  95  72 /  10  10   0   0
Natchez       91  72  92  72 /  10  10  10   0
Greenville    90  72  90  75 /  20  40  30   0
Greenwood     90  71  90  74 /  30  40  30   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

CR/22/CR