765
FXUS64 KJAN 010320 AAB
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1020 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

...New MESOSCALE UPDATE...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 932 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

Departing shortwave trough axis aloft has carried best rain
chances east of the I-55 corridor late this evening, and
convection managed to use up almost all of the instability left
across the forecast area. Light to occasionally moderate rainfall
will continue into early tomorrow morning. Some of the guidance
do show the possibility for some warm advection showers to re-
develop around 3-5 a.m. This could be due to an increase in
warm, moist advection in the lower levels overnight, but it`s
uncertain at this time whether there will be the needed shortwave
impulse to provide lift. Additionally, drier air should be working
in some from the west overnight in the wake of earlier rainfall.
Will carry the mention of thunderstorms overnight, but have
discontinued advertising Marginal Risk outlook for severe storms
through the remainder of the night. Took the opportunity to
updated POPs and weather timing into the afternoon and evening
tomorrow, as this latest system will take some time to recover
from a perspective of diurnal thunderstorm activity. /NF/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 225 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

Tonight through Saturday:

Periods of showers and storms will continue through Saturday. A
few storms could be strong to severe with damaging winds and hail
being the main threats. An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out
but it seems as if that threat is diminishing and the damaging
wind threat and locally heavy rainfall will be the main issues
with these waves of showers and storms. We still maintain a
marginal to slight risk of severe weather over portions of the
forecast area through tonight.

Saturday night through Thursday:

Active weather including the potential for severe weather and
flash flooding will be possible over most of the period. By
Saturday evening the shortwave trough axis will be east of
Mississippi taking the most vigorous convection with it. Our
region will still have west to northwest flow aloft and there is
at least a couple models hinting at an MCS moving back into our
southwest during the evening. This would bring a threat of
damaging wind gusts and perhaps some hail. Locally heavy rain
would also likely accompany the system. During the period Friday
night through Sunday morning there will be the potential for two
to four inches of rain in a short amount of time. This would
result in localized flash flooding. Sunday wl still have a warm
moist airmass in place. Daytime heating looks to combine with
another subtle shortwave to enhance convection over the region
leading to scattered to numerous coverage going into Sunday
evening. This convection is expected to have a distinct diurnal
trend to it and will wain with the loss of daytime heating. We
will still have a warm moist airmass over our region come Monday.
Monday yet another shortwave trough is expected to move across the
region during the heat of the day and lead to at least scattered
coverage of mainly afternoon and early evening storms. Tuesday
convection is expected to be less and more confined to our
northern zones as mid level ridging looks to strengthen some over
the southern portions of our CWA. There remain difference in the
models with Wednesday into Thursday but consensus suggests a
northern stream disturbance will be strong enough to help send a
cold front into our region that would lead to a greater coverage
of convection over our CWA Wednesday afternoon through Thursday.
/22/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 706 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

An area of rain with embedded thunderstorms is affecting most TAF
sites to start the period with at least some -RA. As the better
chances for showers and storms continue to shift east through the
period, increasing chances for low stratus and patchy BR will
build in behind the departing rain. MVFR to IFR conditions appear
likely after 06Z for most of the sites, and some sites could even
see ceilings into the LIFR range before 15Z Saturday. Lifting and
mixing stratus deck between 15Z to 18Z should eventually result in
prevailing VFR conditions toward the end of the period. /NF/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       68  84  69  84 /  80  70  30  50
Meridian      68  82  67  84 /  90  90  30  60
Vicksburg     68  85  70  87 /  70  40  20  50
Hattiesburg   70  85  70  87 /  70  90  40  60
Natchez       67  85  69  87 /  30  50  30  50
Greenville    69  85  70  85 /  90  30  20  40
Greenwood     67  84  70  85 / 100  60  30  40

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

MJH/22/NF