Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
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304 FXUS64 KJAN 260408 AAC AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson MS 1108 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 ...New MESOSCALE UPDATE... .MESOSCALE UPDATE... Issued at 1107 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 With the loss of daytime heating, the last of the evening`s showers and thunderstorms finally faded from the radar scope at 10:30 this evening. The POPs and severe risk have been cleared from the forecast through the rest of tonight. Some patchy fog is possible especially in the Pine Belt with increased humidity. /NF/ && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 310 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Through Sunday: Lingering clouds from earlier convection resulted in a differential heating boundary from the upper Delta through east MS and into central AL this afternoon. This boundary may now serve as a focus for scattered diurnal convection to develop over the next few hours. Given moderate to strong instability and marginally strong deep shear, a few of these storms could become severe. Activity should taper off both in terms of intensity and coverage shortly after sunset as we lose the fuel from daytime heating. Damaging wind gusts and marginally severe hail will be the main concerns with the strongest storms. Otherwise, it will be mostly dry overnight and through most of the daytime Sunday as shortwave ridging briefly builds across the area. In the continuing low level southerly flow, a resurgence of low clouds is possible especially across south MS predawn Sunday morning, lifting and diminishing through the day. Temperatures will remain seasonably warm into Sunday. /DL/ Sunday night through Monday night: An organized convective system may move across much of the forecast area from Sunday night into Memorial Day morning bringing the threat for damaging straight- line winds and hail. A shortwave trough is forecast by all guidance to bring significant height falls into the Lower MS Valley region late Sunday, and with the environment features steep lapse rates and strong mid/upper level flow, intense deep convection is likely to initiate and eventually organize into an MCS with a substantial cold pool north of the Hwy 82 corridor by evening given downdraft CAPE values up to 1500 j/kg. While ambient low level shear forecasts would support greater convective wind potential with an eastward moving system, the magnitude of the cold pool and airmass density change will likely promote strong to severe wind gusts as the boundary propagates southward through the night. Confidence is low concerning the southward extent of the significant wind threat as we go into Memorial Day morning, and depending on this, we will know more about any additional storm threats for late afternoon/evening across mainly southern portions of the area. Most guidance do not appear to allow for sufficient recovery for late day storms in our area as it stands, but all interests should monitor future updates. Tuesday through Friday night: A drier airmass will be one of bigger stories for the mid/late week as a deep longwave trough over much of the eastern CONUS and influences as our region. Convective rainfall chances will continue to some extent however as the boundary doesn`t ever move too far away. /EC/ && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 748 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Isolated TSRA will continue across northeastern MS through around 01Z to 02Z Sunday, but mostly the TAF sites are expected not to be impacted by precip through the TAF period. Low stratus developing overnight should result in MVFR to possibly IFR ceilings between 10Z-15Z at several of the TAF sites. Wind gusts will increase out of the south to around 20-25 kts as the low clouds lift and mix Sunday. /NF/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 73 92 72 92 / 10 0 30 20 Meridian 72 93 71 93 / 10 0 20 30 Vicksburg 74 92 73 93 / 10 0 30 20 Hattiesburg 73 94 74 94 / 0 0 10 30 Natchez 72 92 72 93 / 0 0 20 10 Greenville 75 92 74 91 / 10 10 60 10 Greenwood 74 92 72 91 / 10 10 60 20 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ DL/EC/NF