948
FXUS63 KJKL 020816
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
416 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An upper level disturbance approaching from the west will bring
  showers and thunderstorms to the region through the remainder of
  this weekend.

- After a relative lull in precipitation Monday night into Tuesday
  morning, the potential of showers and thunderstorms will again
  increase through mid week, with temperatures trending 5-10
  degrees above normal.

- Temperatures will return to near seasonal averages by late in
  the week, with at least small rain chances lingering at times.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1115 PM EDT SAT JUN 1 2024

Just a quick update to the forecast late this evening mainly to
take out thunder chances along with fine tuning the PoPs through
the rest of the night. Did also add in the current obs and trends
for the T/Td/Sky grids. These minor adjustments have been sent to
the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the zones, SAFs,
and HWO.

UPDATE Issued at 745 PM EDT SAT JUN 1 2024

23Z sfc analysis shows low pressure moving into the Ohio Valley to
the northeast of the area. This is pushing a broken areas of
showers into eastern Kentucky this evening with a potential for a
stray thunderstorm or two, but mainly showers. Under mostly cloudy
skies, temperatures are running in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
Meanwhile, amid generally light winds from the south, dewpoints
are mostly in the upper 50s and lower 60s. Have updated the
forecast mainly to add in the latest radar and CAMs trends for
PoPs and thunder through the night. Did also include the current
obs and tendencies for the T/Td/Sky grids with this update. These
adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 245 PM EDT SAT JUN 1 2024

A slow-moving disturbance crosses the region tonight through much of
Sunday bringing light rain and occasional showers. By Sunday night
mid-level ridging builds over the area despite low-level westerly
upslope flow and moisture transport into the region. Instability
will remain limited despite sufficient moisture for thunderstorms
through Sunday morning. However, sun breaks will develop by late
Sunday morning into the afternoon and yield widespread weak
instability with possibly isolated areas of moderate instability,
which should support at least widely scattered thunderstorm
development.

Lows tonight will be on the warmer side with clouds and light shower
activity, with upper 50s to lower 60s and little in the way of a
temperature spread between ridges and valleys. Highs Sunday are
expected in the mid to upper 70s with clouds and a few sun breaks
followed by afternoon shower and thunderstorm development.

Upper ridging builds over the region Sunday night, but low-level
moisture transport will continue into the region from the west,
keeping lows on the mild side with upper 50s to lower 60s. Fog
extent will depend on any partial clearing that may develop. For
now, will carry patchy to areas of fog in the grids and zone
forecasts.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 415 AM EDT SUN JUN 2 2024

The models are in general agreement with an amplified and more
blocky pattern to be the rule over the CONUS through next week.
Detail differences become larger after Thursday, lending to lower
forecast confidence. As such, did not deviate much from the
blended guidance regarding PoPs. Monday night into early Tuesday
morning, a 500 mb ridge axis will be aligned from Quebec through
the eastern Great Lakes, Upper Ohio Valley, as well as the
Tennessee Valley. At the surface, high pressure will be positioned
over New England and the Mid-Atlantic region. Meanwhile, stronger
short wave energy will be moving east from the northern/central
Rockies to the northern/central Plains on Tuesday. This will take
on more of a negative tilt through Wednesday morning, as it
swings over Midwest region and into the Great Lakes and portions
of the Ohio Valley, with a surface cold front propelling
southeastward. As mentioned previously, models then diverge
thereafter, with lower 500 mb heights and some degree of cyclonic
flow being maintained over the Ohio and Tennessee valleys. Again,
there is quite a bit of spread in the model guidance, so
confidence in the forecast is low.

As for sensible weather, dry and warmer conditions will start out
over eastern Kentucky. Tuesday looks to be the warmest day of next
week, with highs in the mid to upper 80s. PoPs have trended slower
for Tuesday, with low chances (20-30%) moving in from the west in
the afternoon, as moisture gradually increases. PoPs look to peak
on Wednesday, with likely to categorical chances (70-80%), with
the approach of the surface cold front, as well as the arrival of
better mid and upper level support. Higher PoPs (60-70%) will
linger into Wednesday night, with chance PoPs (40-60%) for
Thursday. Highs will average in the low to mid 80s for the middle
of next week, before cooling off to the upper 70s to lower 80s for
Friday and Saturday, Lows will cool from the low to mid 60s, to
the mid and upper 50s. There will likely be a lull in the PoPs
Friday and Saturday; however, given the overall agreement of some
degree of cyclonic flow, will maintain some low chance (20-30%)
and mainly diurnally driven PoPs for this period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
ISSUED AT 830 PM EDT SAT JUN 1 2024

The current VFR sky cover will gradually lower to mainly low-end
VFR CIGs after this evening in -SHRA, with some MVFR (or lower)
CIGs developing late tonight into Sunday morning for the western
parts of the area, before most likely returning to at least low-
VFR CIGs by Sunday afternoon. A few thunderstorms are possible,
mainly tonight, and primarily west of Interstate 75. Winds will be
generally light and variable through the forecast period. Also,
be on the look out for some LLWS from the south at 35 kts in the
westernmost terminals like KSME later tonight.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...CMC/GREIF