086
FXUS62 KKEY 290250
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1050 PM EDT Tue May 28 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1050 PM EDT Tue May 28 2024
It`s another quiet and muggy night across the Florida Keys.
Surface analysis hasn`t changed too much this evening with a
stationary front along the north Gulf coast extending up the New
England coastline and a surface Atlantic high just nosing over the
Bahamas. The placement of these features has resulted in light
and variable winds across our CWA. KBYX radar is currently free of
any meteorological echoes in and around the Keys. Skies are
mostly clear with the highest density of coverage over the Upper
Keys due to cloud debris from old South Florida seabreeze
convection. Current temperatures along the island chain are in the
mid 80s with dew points in the mid to upper 70s.

While light and variable breezes are forecast to persist into
tomorrow, there could be a bit of action along the island chain
overnight. Our 00z balloon sounding saw yet another increase in PW
to 1.54 inches with the moistening of much of the lower levels of
the thermodynamic profile. While a capping inversion sits around
930 mb, any lingering boundaries pivoting in from yesterday`s
convection over mainland Florida could provide the lift needed to
spark some showers in our area. Recent CAMs runs support this with
convection sparking along the island chain sometime between 08 to
10z and persisting until after sunrise tomorrow. However, not all
solutions agree on this outcome and showers have had a history of
struggling once they entered our area earlier this evening. Opted
to keep slight chance PoPs tonight and into tomorrow. No changes
in the forecast are required at this time.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1050 PM EDT Tue May 28 2024
There are no watches, warnings, or advisories currently in effect
for the coastal waters of the Florida Keys. From synopsis, light
to gentle, generally variable breezes are expected through
Thursday. High pressure currently over south- central Canada will
emerge off the Mid-Atlantic coast by the end of the work week.
This will result in fresh northeast to east breezes beginning as
early as Friday night, lasting through early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 1050 PM EDT Tue May 28 2024
VFR conditions are expected to prevail at both EYW and MTH through
midnight. Recent CAM runs suggest a line of showers will develop
along the island chain in vicinity of the island chain after
midnight tonight around 08 to 10z lasting until after sunrise.
This is still very uncertain as not all CAM runs agree on this
solution or location, thus no mention is in either TAF at this
time. Near surface winds will be light and variable throughout the
TAF period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  82  91  81  91 /  20  10  10  10
Marathon  82  91  82  91 /  20  10  20  20

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...JAM
Aviation/Nowcasts....JAM
Data Acquisition.....DR

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