781
FXUS64 KLCH 201530
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1030 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Wx map shows weak surface high pressure ridge across the Eastern
U.S. with southeast winds established over the Northern Gulf of
Mexico, Louisiana and Southeast Texas. Visible satellite imagery
shows a few cumulus across our region, likely to become scattered
cumulus areawide to yield partly cloudy skies. No precipitation
expected. Afternoon temperatures expected to reach the upper 80s
to lower 90s. Ongoing forecast on track with no updates needed at
this time.

08/DML

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 242 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024

High pressure is over the Atlantic coast this morning which is
providing a light onshore flow locally. Aloft a ridge is building
in from the southwest. This pattern will remain in place during
the short term and provide summer-like temperatures and plentiful
humidity while keeping rain chances virtually nil. Winds may
slightly increase Tuesday and Wednesday as low pressure moves
across the plains.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 242 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024

The ridge breaks down a bit as a frontal bndry stays well north of
the region. However there could be just enough instability/lift for
some isolated showers/storms across the area. Similar pattern
continues into Friday, with highest POPs well north of the area.

Heading into next weekend and early next week, the pattern remains
somewhat zonal across the area. High pressure remains entrenched in
central MX. Uncertainty remains as to how far south any frontal
bndry can get and shower/storm activity.

Daytime highs in the upper 80s Thursday will gradually warm into the
lower and perhaps middle 90s by early next week. These temperatures
will also be dependent on any shower/storm activity.

78

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)

VFR expected this afternoon and evening, with southeast winds 8-10
kts. After 06z, MVFR ceilings expected to form at all sites, with
intermittent MVFR visibility between 10-13z with the winds briefly
becoming calm near daybreak. Southeast winds around 10-14 kts with
gusts near 20-22 kts expected at all sites after 14z Tuesday.

08/DML

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 242 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024

Light winds and no precip is anticipated today, however low
pressure will move into the plains during Tuesday. This will
slightly tighten the pressure gradient and increase winds locally
through the remainder of the week. Winds are expected to remain
below SCA criteria.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  90  67  89  70 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  88  71  87  74 /   0   0   0   0
LFT  91  72  89  73 /   0   0   0   0
BPT  89  73  88  75 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...08