807
FXUS64 KLIX 230848
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
348 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 342 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024

Disturbance moving east over central Miss this morning will help
cause some shower activity over the northern half of the area. There
will be some boundaries from this activity left over the area as
well which could serve as a focus. Soundings show deep enough
vertical depth to get some shower activity and by noon or early
afternoon, there could be enough heating coupled with these
boundaries to provide a few showers and maybe even a storm. There
won`t be many but we have increased precip numbers to show this
trend. If there are a few sh/ts that develop during the afternoon,
they will simply cool things down with some beneficial rain but will
also decay after sunset. Friday looks to be a bit different as there
should be even less activity around than what will be seen today.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 342 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024

We will begin to tack on a degree each day through Monday as we
should begin to see some mid 90s by the weekend. These temps are
from 6 to 8 degrees above normal levels for this time of year. We
will also be in the vicinity of a few record highs around the
area over the weekend but several sites have records in the upper
90s and even a few at or just above 100F. So we are in that time
of year when it starts to get a bit hot. Heat index values will
also rise to around the 105F area as we get into Monday with
higher moisture content in the boundary layer. A stalled front
over central TX will get some added forcing by Monday morning to
start moving our way. This front should be here by Mon night or
ealry Tue. It could provide some showers or even a storm or two
but it will help to dry things out a bit with lower dew pt air.
The cloudy cover will help though since this time of year fronts
with dry air only provide higher optical depth values giving way
to much warmer temps when there is no cloud cover. This front
should stall either just offshore or at the coast and start its
way back by mid week. Still no organized storms seen on the
horizon.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 342 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024

VFR should be the rule today not the exception. But there will be a
few showers around with even a -TSRA not being ruled out during the
afternoon/evening, but chances are not high enough to show in this
taf set for any particular site. Cigs will not be an issue outside
of any showers that develop but tonight could show some MVFR cigs
moving in from the north mainly for BTR and MCB.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 342 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024

Southerly winds of 10-15kt will remain through much of this fcast.
There is a front that could stall either just offshore or at the
coast Monday night or early Tue. No organized storms are expected
with this front but there is a chance that winds could shift to a
northerly direction for Tuesday but should remain rather lite. Even
if this front does manage to shift winds, it will be moving back to
the north by mid next week with southerly winds becoming re-
established.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  88  70  90  70 /  10  10   0   0
BTR  93  75  94  75 /  10  10   0   0
ASD  90  74  92  74 /  10  10   0   0
MSY  90  76  91  77 /  10  10   0   0
GPT  86  75  88  75 /  10   0   0   0
PQL  89  72  90  72 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....TE
AVIATION...TE
MARINE...TE