Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
985 FXUS65 KLKN 291935 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 1235 PM PDT Wed May 29 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Isolated light showers will dissipate this evening. Northwest flow tomorrow will bring partly to mostly sunny skies and dry weather to the region. Look for mainly dry conditions for the rest of the week as temperatures begin a slow warm up into the 80s into the weekend. && .SHORT TERM...Tonight through Thursday night. Light, isolated showers have popped up across extreme eastern Nevada this afternoon along the Utah border. This is due in part to a weak upper trough moving over the area. These small pockets of activity will continue through the rest of the afternoon and early evening before dissipating. Look for the skies to scatter out with overnight lows in the 30s and 40s. For Thursday and Thursday night, a northwest flow will develop during this time with slowing rising heights. Conditions are expected to remain dry with northwest to west breezes in the afternoon with some gusts to 20 mph. Highs will be in the 70s and 80s. Quiet and calm conditions will continue into the overnight with lows in the 30s and 40s. .LONG TERM...Friday through Wednesday Quiet weather will be in store for the silver state for the end of meteorological Spring and the first few days of meteorological Summer as the next chance of showers wont arrive until early morning Tuesday June 4th. Until then the upper pattern will be marked by relative flat zonal flow with heights slowly rising signaling a slow warming trend for the weekend. As for Tuesday morning a quick moving northern stream trough and associated cool front will move through the Pacific NW, unfortunately models show that this system will clip Nevada with a low chance, 10% to 30%, of rain showers spreading across far northern Elko and Humboldt counties overnight Monday into Tuesday morning, with the front washing out over central NV Tuesday evening. Models then hint that after Tuesday southern stream upper ridging will build in over the region setting up the typical summertime heat dome. While this is the favored solution for the ECMWF The GFS is not as bullish on the upper ridge. The key feature deciding which scenario will pan out will be a cut off upper low over Pacific ocean off the coast of Baja California, as both model suites show this low, how far east/strong his low is next week will dictate where the ridge axis is. As of now the GFS is stronger and farther east with the low and has a SW-NE trending ridge axis over New Mexico. The ECMWF is the opposite with the low, and shows a SE-NW trending ridge axis over the Silver State. Temperatures will range in the upper 70s to low 90s for the weekend and into next week for highs, as overnight lows look to run into the mid 40s to mid 50s for most. Winds for the extended will be generally out of the west with the occasional bend to the NW, with light winds overnight, building to breezy winds in the afternoon at 5 to 15 MPH with gusts up to 25 MPH possible. && .AVIATION...VFR conditions will be the primary flight conditions through Thursday. Convective build-ups will continue Thursday across eastern NV with a very low chance at a shower possible along the UT/NV border but all NV terminals look to remain dry. Any shower that does form will quickly end after sunset tonight and Thursday. Light afternoon WNW winds of 5KT to 15KT with gusts up to 25 KT possible across N NV. Winds for central NV terminals KTPH, and KELY will be a bit stronger out of the NW at 10KT to 20KT with a few gusts up to 30KT. && .HYDROLOGY...Flows on many small creeks and streams remain elevated. The lower Humboldt continues to run strong with Battle Mountain currently in action stage and Comus forecast to enter action stage later in the coming days. Wildhorse Reservoir resides in action stage and is forecast to remain in action stage for the next several days. Humboldt River at Battle Mountain remains in action stage and is forecast to slowly fall below action stage later today. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ 86/98/98