Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO
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903 FXUS63 KLSX 262021 AFDLSX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 321 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... -Significant severe thunderstorms are likely through this evening, along and south of I-70. The main threats are very large hail (2"+), damaging winds (70-80+ mph), and strong tornadoes (EF2 or higher). -Locally heavy rainfall, up to 2-5 inches, is possible with this round of storms. -Dry and mild weather expected through the work week with temperatures near normal. && .SHORT TERM... (Through Late Monday Night) Issued at 316 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Latest visible satellite and radar imagery indicates that a cu field is developing between I-70 and I-44, as well as scattered storms as of 20z. In the meantime, strong heating is occurring in this area with steep LR (8-8.5C/km), MU CAPEs 2000-3000 J/kg, as well as decent deep layer shear (50-60kts). So thunderstorms will continue to develop in this area within the strongly sheared environment. Supercells will be the dominant convective mode then transition to a more linear structure as the activity exits the forecast area later this evening. There is a risk for all severe hazards including very large hail (2"+), damaging winds (70-80+ mph) and strong tornadoes (EF2 or higher), especially along and south of I-70. Otherwise, there is still the possibility of locally heavy rainfall as the storms move through. With west-east shear parallel to the outflow boundary, could see training storms through this evening. The latest HREF probability matched mean indicates the potential for rainfall up to 2" over a 3 hour period. Areas that have already seen modest rainfall in the past two days will be at higher risk for flash flooding. So the Flood Watch remains in effect until 06z Monday. Surface ridge will build in behind the cold front late tonight with dry and pleasant weather returning on Monday. Lows tonight will be in the mid 50s to low 60s. In the meantime, a secondary shortwave will rotate around the system and sink southeast through the forecast area during the day on Monday. Will see increasing cu field, but the best chances for showers will be just north of the forecast area. Highs will be in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Byrd && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Next Sunday) Issued at 316 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Upper level ridge will build over the western CONUS while troughing lingers over the eastern half. Therefore the forecast area will be in northwest flow aloft with temperatures a bit below normal through the end of the work week. Otherwise, the pattern begins to change late in the work week with chances of rain returning by next weekend. Byrd && .AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Monday Afternoon) Issued at 1234 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Morning activity now well east of TAF sites. Still expect another round of showers and storms will develop, mainly along and south of I-70. So kept KUIN dry and VFR. Otherwise, for TAF sites along I-70 have vicinity thunderstorm mention. For KCOU and KJEF it will be between 18z Sunday and 01z Monday, then for St. Louis metro area TAFs between 21z Sunday and 03z Monday, tapering off once cold front moves through region. As for the winds, gusty south to southwest winds will veer to the northwest behind the cold front and diminish. Byrd && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...Flood Watch until 1 AM CDT Monday for Audrain MO-Boone MO- Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO- Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Lincoln MO-Madison MO-Moniteau MO- Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike MO-Reynolds MO-Saint Charles MO- Saint Francois MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint Louis MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Warren MO-Washington MO. IL...Flood Watch until 1 AM CDT Monday for Bond IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL- Marion IL-Monroe IL-Montgomery IL-Randolph IL-Saint Clair IL-Washington IL. && $$ WFO LSX