Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
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192 FXUS64 KLZK 290540 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 1240 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Thursday) Issued at 228 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Recent observations indicate mid and high clouds covering the southern half of the forecast area. This cloud cover is in association with a MCS not moving southward across southeast Texas and southwest Louisiana. Near normal temperatures prevailed across the forecast area. Several smaller and less intense complexes were noted in north central Oklahoma, and central Kansas. These systems were moving to the south and southeast, along the edge of an instability ridge, in a northwesterly upper flow. During this period, a number of additional system are expected to develop in this pattern. The main forecast challenge is to attempt to focus a potential for any of these future systems to affect the forecast area. Overall, expect precipitation chances to increase during this period, from west to east. Forecasts will reflect timing uncertainties, yet will reflect the increasing confidence in overall precipitation potential. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday Night through next Tuesday) Issued at 228 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Very progressive upper level pattern will continue over the continental US during the extended term. Numerous shortwaves will zip across the area, bringing periods of cloudiness and precipitation. Toward the end of the extended term, models are trying to build up a ridge across the western half of the country, placing Arkansas at the eastern edge of the ridge. If this develops, I would expect a period of drier and warmer weather. At the surface, the extended term begins with high pressure over the Great Lakes region, which will allow a warm front to push northward across the state on Saturday as the high slides to the east. Southerly surface flow will remain dominant thru the remainder of the period, which should keep warm and humid Gulf air over the area. I am keeping a watch on a few different periods in the extended term where strong to severe storms may be possible. In particular, it appears that Monday afternoon thru the evening could result in a very unstable airmass across the region. With a shortwave likely approaching during that time frame...I would consider this to be a likely candidate for severe weather. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1234 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024 VFR conds are expected through the TAF period. Mid-day to afternoon SHRA/isolated TSRA are possible across AR on Wed, but this activity should wind down towards sunset with the loss of daytime heating. Winds will be light out of the E and SE through the period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 80 61 77 61 / 40 20 20 10 Camden AR 84 65 80 65 / 60 30 40 20 Harrison AR 77 58 76 59 / 50 10 20 20 Hot Springs AR 81 63 79 64 / 60 30 30 20 Little Rock AR 84 66 79 65 / 50 30 30 20 Monticello AR 87 66 81 66 / 50 30 40 20 Mount Ida AR 80 63 79 63 / 70 30 30 30 Mountain Home AR 78 58 76 59 / 40 10 10 20 Newport AR 81 63 79 63 / 30 20 10 10 Pine Bluff AR 85 65 80 65 / 50 30 30 20 Russellville AR 81 63 78 63 / 60 20 20 20 Searcy AR 83 62 77 61 / 40 30 20 20 Stuttgart AR 83 66 79 65 / 40 30 30 20 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...55 LONG TERM....53 AVIATION...70