Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
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380 FXUS64 KMAF 260316 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 1016 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Sunday night) Issued at 139 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Quite an impressive moisture contrast across the CWA this afternoon. Dewpoints range from the single digits in the west to the low 70s in the east. Current satellite shows convection developing in the moist air east of the dryline which should remain east of our warning area though will have to monitor this closely as hi-res models are not handling this particularly well. Otherwise more of the same is expected in the short term. Above normal temperatures will continue the next 36 hours under mostly clear skies. No precipitation is expected. Hennig && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Friday) Issued at 139 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 The dry heat continues! Upper level ridging will carry over into Monday with a thermal ridge axis situated over the region, and 850mb temps of 30-32C indicate temperatures could reach the upper 90s/low 100s for most Monday afternoon. Some models try to bring a weak cold front into the area on Monday as well, and should it reach the northern Permian Basin before peak heating, temperatures may be slightly cooler across the north than currently forecast. Regardless, low level moisture will begin to filter back into the region with surface high pressure over the Central Plains, and a dryline will sharpen on Tuesday. A weakness in the upper ridge should be sufficient for storms to develop off the dryline Tuesday afternoon, with heavy rain, hail, and strong winds all possible in any storms that develop. This won`t be a "slam dunk" severe weather day as shear currently looks to be lacking, but CAPE values of about 3000 J/Kg and PWs of 1.3-1.5" indicate an interesting afternoon...will keep an eye on the set up as we get closer to the event. Beyond Tuesday the pattern will remain fairly stagnate with the dryline setting up slightly further east each afternoon and storms will develop with multiple disturbances moving across. Temperatures will hold fairly steady in the mid to upper 90s for most with southerly surface flow, and those along the Rio Grande may be in Heat Advisory territory with afternoon highs 110+. Some relief may be coming this weekend with the breakdown of the ridge, but long range temperatures still looks to be at or above-normal. -Zuber && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1015 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours, with a few high clouds. Convective temps remain to high for cu. Relatively light westerly flow will persist. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 139 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Warm and dry weather continues in the coming days. ERCs are in the 97th+ percentile and fuels are critically to extremely dry. Strong westerly 20ft winds this afternoon are meeting with humidity as low as 3 percent to create extreme fire weather conditions across the west with RFTIs of 7-8, and a Red Flag Warning is in effect through this evening. 20ft winds decrease tonight everywhere except the mountains where they will remain elevated, but overnight recovery will be poor, around or less than 20% RH, with westerly flow continuing. Humidity once again falls to 5-6% area-wide Sunday afternoon, with an uptick of 20ft winds across the far west. Given RFTIs of 5-7 and no improvement in fuel moisture, a Fire Weather Watch has been issued for Sunday afternoon and early evening. The drier air sticks around through at least Monday, but 20ft winds should be lighter than previous days. Still, given ERCs and extremely dry fuels, Monday will be another near-critical fire weather day with poor overnight recovery out west. Moisture will finally begin to push back in on Tuesday with surface flow switching southeasterly, and a sharpening dryline Tuesday afternoon should be sufficient for storms to develop, which may bring frequent lightning and gusty and erratic winds. Fire weather concerns decrease Tuesday and beyond with this increase in moisture, but meaningful precipitation doesn`t look likely across the west. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 66 98 62 101 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 63 96 61 100 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 72 105 70 106 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 68 99 67 103 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 62 86 63 90 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 61 93 60 97 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 58 93 55 96 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 67 96 63 100 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 68 96 65 101 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 64 99 62 102 / 0 0 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...High Wind Warning until 11 PM CDT /10 PM MDT/ this evening for Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains. Wind Advisory until 11 PM CDT this evening for Eastern Culberson County-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor. Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening for Chinati Mountains-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Eastern Culberson County-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor. NM...High Wind Warning until 10 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County. Wind Advisory until 10 PM MDT this evening for Central Lea County-Eddy County Plains-Northern Lea County. && $$ SHORT TERM...10 LONG TERM....88 AVIATION...44