Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
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887 FXUS64 KMAF 231713 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 1213 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 1201 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 The dryline is in the process of mixing eastward early this afternoon, and per latest observations, currently extends from roughly just west of Gail to just east of Midland and to the west of Dryden. A surface trough to the north will facilitate increasing downslope flow this afternoon, further shunting the dryline and associated moisture to the east, though given the timing of the dryline`s progression coincident with peak heating, a quick-hitting round of thunderstorms is possible mid to late afternoon, mainly focused over the far northeastern Permian Basin/Western Low Rolling Plains. Storms that develop may not reach severe limits before moving east of the area, though depending on the precise location of initiation and how quickly updrafts can mature, large hail and damaging winds would be possible. Any storms will be well to the east of the area by early evening, a solution echoed by available high-resolution guidance. Have updated the grids to account for this potential, with the remainder of today`s forecast on track. JP && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday afternoon) Issued at 228 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Quieter weather the next two days as temperatures rebound to the upper 90s/low 100s with zonal flow aloft and clearing skies. Very dry westerly flow will once again usher in critically low humidity this afternoon, possibly as low as 2 percent, which will combine with gusty winds to create critical fire weather conditions across the west. A Red Flag Warning is in effect...more information can be found in the Fire Weather Discussion below. The downsloping west winds should also push temperatures as high as 110+ along the Rio Grande and 95+ in the higher terrain across the south, so a Heat Advisory is in effect for these areas. On Friday, models continue to try to push a cold front down into Texas on the heels of an upper level trough moving from the Dakotas up into Canada. If the front does manage to get here Friday morning, similar to Wednesday, it will stall out likely somewhere in the Permian Basin, and quickly mix out in the afternoon as strong warm westerly flow wins out. With the uncertainty of the front for Friday, have let NBM ride for afternoon highs, which look to be mainly in the mid to upper 90s, 100s along the Rio Grande, and possible 80s/low 90s for the far northern portions of the CWA. With dry westerly flow persisting, precipitation chances are nil for the short term. -Zuber && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 228 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024 A hot weekend will transition to cooler temperatures next week as we see a pattern change. Deep westerly flow will continue with slightly stronger downslope flow forecast for Saturday. Very dry air along with gusty winds will lead to critical fire weather conditions, especially in the higher terrain. In addition to the fire weather concerns, excessive heat will continue across the Big Bend and Lower Trans Pecos where more Heat Advisories are likely. Sunday will be similar although with less wind and a few degrees shaved off high temperatures. Bigger changes take place Monday as a strong shortwave moves across the Plains and drags a cold front through the area. Confidence is low regarding the front as some models have gone back and forth on timing. NBM has been consistent in bringing highs back down to normal behind the front. Return flow commences Tuesday helping to bring Gulf moisture back into the region. A dryline will set up against the higher terrain much of next week with periodic disturbances providing an opportunity for showers and thunderstorms. It`s too early to tell which days will be more active with regards to convection, but given we are in our peak severe weather season things could get busy once again. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1201 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 VFR conditions will continue the next 24 hours. Gusty west- southwesterly winds are expected at all terminals this afternoon, with gusts to 20-30kt common. Gusts will diminish after sunset, and a cold front progged to move into the area toward daybreak Friday will result in a northwesterly to northerly wind shift at CNM, HOB, INK, and MAF late in the period. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 228 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Fire weather concerns increase today given a combination of escalating factors. A very dry airmass will spread east today across our area with RH values below 5 percent by this afternoon. Little recovery is expected each night with these RH values reappearing each day through the weekend. Winds will remain generally under 15 mph for most locations except across the higher terrain which will be influenced by deeper mixing pushing winds to gust to near 40 mph at times. These stronger winds will lead to critical fire weather conditions both today and again Saturday in the stronger, wind-favored areas. Fuels continue to degrade across the west and ERC values will reach extreme levels (>97th percentile) this afternoon. Given these fuel conditions will exist into the weekend another Fire Weather Watch is likely for Saturday as weather conditions worsen. While dry air will spread across the entire area, recent rains and green- up will help prevent major concerns for fire starts further east. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 61 95 59 101 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 63 94 62 95 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 70 103 67 106 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 66 98 63 102 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 61 85 61 86 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 59 91 54 94 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 52 90 51 94 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 63 95 59 99 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 64 95 60 99 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 60 98 59 101 / 0 0 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for Eastern Culberson County-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor. Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Central Brewster County-Chinati Mountains-Chisos Basin-Davis Mountains-Lower Brewster County-Terrell. NM...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for Chaves Plains- Eddy Plains-Lea-Sacramento Foothills and Guadalupe Mountains. && $$ SHORT TERM...88 LONG TERM....29 AVIATION...84