Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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Issued by NWS
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548 ACUS11 KWNS 282246 SWOMCD SPC MCD 282245 KSZ000-COZ000-282345- Mesoscale Discussion 1055 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0545 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Areas affected...Central High Plains Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 282245Z - 282345Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Severe risk is increasing across portions of eastern CO into western KS. Large hail is the primary threat and a severe thunderstorm watch is being considered. DISCUSSION...Boundary-layer lapse rates have steepened significantly across the central High Plains late this afternoon. Southeasterly low-level flow has forced mid 50s surface dew points into eastern CO and inhibition is now negligible. Scattered thunderstorms are now evolving along the northern edge of an instability axis characterized by 1500 J/kg MLCAPE within a modestly sheared environment. Hail is likely occurring with the most robust updrafts and this activity should spread southeast into portion of western KS, just north of ww0346. Some consideration is being given to a new severe thunderstorm watch across this region. ..Darrow/Smith.. 05/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU... LAT...LON 39840296 39000069 37890110 38760375 39840296