059
FXUS62 KMFL 181058
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
658 AM EDT Sat May 18 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 227 AM EDT Sat May 18 2024

A hot and humid day is on tap across much of South Florida as a mid-level
ridge continues to slide across the area, being pushed along by a
shortwave moving along the northern Gulf states. The ridge will
continue to keep conditions mostly dry, however, scattered shower
and thunderstorm activity will be possible for coastal locations,
primarily on the Atlantic side as the sea breeze boundary pushes
inland in the afternoon and early evening hours. Steep low-level
lapse rates and enhanced shear along the sea breeze could support
stronger storms capable of producing damaging wind gusts and small
hail.

With south-southwest flow and warming airmass from the overhead ridge,
high temperatures today will peak in the mid to upper 90s across
much of South Florida, with heat index values up to 110 possible.
Heat Advisories have been issued for all counties due to the
hazardous conditions. Anyone sensitive to heat should plan to
avoid extended time outside, and if you are required to be
outside, take cooling breaks and stay hydrated.

On Sunday, the aforementioned shortwave and associated frontal boundary will
slowly spread over the Florida Peninsula, kicking the ridge off
over the Atlantic. This will lead to greater instability and
better chances for showers and thunderstorms across the area,
especially during the afternoon and evening hours. Some storms
could again be strong, capable of producing damaging wind gusts,
small hail, and heavy rain. Even with the increased cloud cover
and a slightly cooler airmass compared to Saturday, heat will yet
again be a concern as south-southwest flow persists over South
Florida for much of the day ahead of the frontal boundary. High
temperatures will be in the low to mid-90s, with heat index values
ranging from 103-108. Heat advisories may be needed yet again for
certain areas.
 &&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 227 AM EDT Sat May 18 2024

Increased rain chances and a bit of relief from the heat to start the long-term
period as a mid-level shortwave trough settles over Florida and
the Southeast US, and a surface front finally pushes across South
Florida. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected on
Monday and Tuesday, especially during the afternoon and early
evening hours, with locally heavy rain possibly leading to a few
instances of minor urban flooding across the East Coast metro. A
few storms may also be on the strong to severe side, with damaging
wind gusts from localized downbursts being the main threat.

From mid to late week, a mid-level ridge will slowly build in from over
the Gulf, while the mid-level trough lingers just east of the
Florida Peninsula. While chances for showers and thunderstorms
will gradually decrease, there will still be daily chances during
the afternoon and early evening hours, primarily driven by diurnal
sea-breeze convection.

Temperatures will gradually trend cooler each day from early to midweek,
and rebound towards the end of the week as the ridging builds
back in. Monday`s highs will be in the upper 80s to low 90s, with
mid to upper 80s on Wednesday, and back into the low 90s again by
Friday. Overnight lows will remain warm, in the mid to upper 70s
each day. While these temperatures are above normal, they will not
lead to the heat concerns that we have seen for much of the past
week.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 227 AM EDT Sat May 18 2024

Increased rain chances and a bit of relief from the heat to start the long-term
period as a mid-level shortwave trough settles over Florida and
the Southeast US, and a surface front finally pushes across South
Florida. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected on
Monday and Tuesday, especially during the afternoon and early
evening hours, with locally heavy rain possibly leading to a few
instances of minor urban flooding across the East Coast metro. A
few storms may also be on the strong to severe side, with damaging
wind gusts from localized downbursts being the main threat.

From mid to late week, a mid-level ridge will slowly build in from over
the Gulf, while the mid-level trough lingers just east of the
Florida Peninsula. While chances for showers and thunderstorms
will gradually decrease, there will still be daily chances during
the afternoon and early evening hours, primarily driven by diurnal
sea-breeze convection.

Temperatures will gradually trend cooler each day from early to midweek,
and rebound towards the end of the week as the ridging builds
back in. Monday`s highs will be in the upper 80s to low 90s, with
mid to upper 80s on Wednesday, and back into the low 90s again by
Friday. Overnight lows will remain warm, in the mid to upper 70s
each day. While these temperatures are above normal, they will not
lead to the heat concerns that we have seen for much of the past
week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 657 AM EDT Sat May 18 2024

Generally VFR conditions will prevail through the morning hours.
Restrictions due to scattered thunderstorms will be possible this
afternoon over the east coast terminals, primarily between 18 and
00Z. Light and variable winds this morning will trend SE on the
east coast, sustained 10-15kts with gusts to 20kts while winds
will become SW at KAPF this afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 227 AM EDT Sat May 18 2024

Mainly benign conditions over the weekend with light to moderate
southwesterly to southerly flow. There will be scattered showers and
thunderstorms this weekend, mainly over the Atlantic waters,
which could create locally chaotic seas at times and gusty winds.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 227 AM EDT Sat May 18 2024

Low rip current risks today along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts with
light flow. Rip current risks will increase along the Gulf coast
on Sunday and into next week as onshore winds increase a bit.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            93  80  93  77 /  30  20  60  40
West Kendall     96  78  95  74 /  20  20  50  40
Opa-Locka        95  79  94  76 /  40  30  60  40
Homestead        94  79  94  77 /  20  10  40  50
Fort Lauderdale  92  80  91  76 /  40  30  70  50
N Ft Lauderdale  93  79  92  75 /  40  30  70  50
Pembroke Pines   97  80  95  77 /  40  30  60  40
West Palm Beach  94  77  92  73 /  50  30  70  50
Boca Raton       94  79  92  74 /  40  30  70  50
Naples           92  79  91  77 /   0  20  40  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening
     for FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Culver
LONG TERM....Culver
AVIATION...Redman