135
FXUS62 KMHX 311739
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
139 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Cooler and drier high pressure builds overhead today and through
the weekend. High pressure then shifts offshore early next week
with temps returning to around normal.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 1000 AM Fri...Meteorological spring is closing out on a
clear and dry note as sprawling high pressure centered over the
Ohio Valley shifts towards the Carolinas this morning. Main
changes to the prior forecast were removing coastal PoPs as
triggering surface boundary shifts well out into the open
Atlantic, and to lower Tds a few degrees through the day, closer
to HRRR as majority of guidance has a history of overestimating
minimum Tds during clear sky/northerly flow patterns. Highs
today in the mid to upper 70s with a few Td readings in the
upper 30s possible across the inner coastal plain. Some diurnal
strato cu may develop, esp Eern zones, and help keep temps down
just a touch.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
As of 0645 Friday...Ridging builds through the entire column in
the wake of the departing trough aloft leading to a calm, cool,
and clear night. Expecting strong radiational cooling with clear
skies and the SFC high almost directly overhead during the
overnight hours. Lows lower 50s most, upper 50s to low 60s
beaches. Chance the typical cold spots inland see lows in the
40s tomorrow morning. We will be flirting with record lows
tonight. Not currently explicitly forecasting record breaking
lows, but the possibility is on the table. See CLIMATE section
below for record Lows for 01JUN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 330 AM Fri...Cool high pressure remains over the area
through the weekend with below normal temperatures and low
humidity expected. Then, the high will slide offshore early
next week with a return to a summery pattern featuring daily
scattered afternoon thunderstorms and highs near normal.

Saturday and Sunday...It will be a fantastic start to June this
weekend with low humidity and temperatures in the low to mid
80s. High pressure will be more or less overhead Saturday, and
then shift offshore Sunday. Another cool night expected Saturday
night due to strong radiational cooling, and lows could reach
the upper 50s to low 60s inland.

Monday through Thursday...High pressure will build offshore
early next week allowing for a return of summer-like warmth and
humidity. Increasing moisture will introduce a risk for isolated
to scattered thunderstorms each afternoon with the best chances
for rain (~30%) Wednesday and Thursday as weak upper level
impulses move through a mostly zonal flow. Temps will return to
near normal, with highs reaching the upper 80s to near 90 each
day, and lows mostly in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through 18Z Saturday/...
As of 140 Friday...VFR conditions prevail across all terminals
this afternoon as high pressure, centered over the Ohio Valley,
continues to build into the Carolinas from the northwest. An
area of very weak surface convergence along the northern Pamlico
Sound, coupled with enhanced low level moisture, is resulting in
a few very isolated showers primarily north and east of the TAF
terminals. This threat is entirely diurnal, with clouds and
precip threat coming to an end quickly after 22-23z. Beyond this
time period, clear skies and calm winds prevail. Airmass is too
dry to support widespread fog, but if some terminals decouple
effectively enough could see some spotty, minimal-impact MIFG.

LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/...
As of 330 AM Fri...Mostly VFR conditions are expected through
the long term as high pressure remains in place across the
region. However, strong overnight cooling this weekend could
result in the formation of patchy fog...bringing the threat of
sub-VFR visibilities to the terminals.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Fri/...
As of 0345 Friday...Latest obs show NE-SE winds 5-15 kt with
seas 2ft. Seas will continue around 2-3 ft, highest over outer
Central waters where 4ft possible. Shortwave traveling through
the trough aloft passes over area waters early this morning
leading to chance of showers and a storm or two working from NW
to SE across the Pamlico Sound toward Ocracoke Island around
sunrise. Nerly winds on Fri in the 15 kt range with some gusts
in the lower 20s, but remaining below SCA levels with seas of
2-4 ft.

LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/...
As of 330 AM Fri...Good boating conditions expected through the
weekend and into early next week with high pressure overhead.

Winds will be light and variable Saturday, with a light sea
breeze eventually developing in the afternoon. Return flow
develops Sunday with winds becoming SSW at 10-15 kts. Winds
then briefly strengthen to 15-20 kts Sunday night before
returning to SW 10-15 kts Monday. Winds become southerly at 5-10
kts on Tuesday. Seas will be mostly 2-3 ft through the period.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record Low temps for June 1, Saturday.

LOCATION       TEMP/YEAR
New Bern      48/1966  (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras 50/1966  (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville    45/1930  (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City 48/1984  (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston       42/1984  (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville  50/1966  (NCA ASOS)

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...MS/CEB
SHORT TERM...CEB
LONG TERM...SGK
AVIATION...SGK/MS
MARINE...SGK/CEB
CLIMATE...MHX