313
FXUS63 KMKX 272033
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
333 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms through this evening.
  Wind gusts up to 45 mph and small hail are possible, but
  severe weather is not expected.

- Scattered showers & storms again Tuesday. Severe weather is
  unlikely in this activity.

- Dry & pleasant conditions prevail from Wednesday through the
  end of the week. Friday night will be the next chance for
  precipitation.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 333 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024

Tonight through Tuesday night:

We have a few different processes going on across southern WI
this afternoon and evening that are producing areas of showers
and thunderstorms. First, stratocumulus showers and
thunderstorms are developing in the wraparound area of an
exiting low. These are tracking southward from north central WI
and are due to steep mid level lapse rates. They are
encountering an uncapped environment in south central WI,
basically west of Fond du Lac, Waukesha and Burlington, where
there was sunshine today. Wind shear is weak. Gusty winds in
brief downbursts, along with pea to dime size hail, are possible
with any stronger storms this afternoon.

The second area is light rain from high cloud bases that is
associated with a very weak shortwave and decaying precip. The
precip is probably not hitting the ground, but the clouds are
acting to decrease the instability/CAPE values a little.

The main area that we`re watching this afternoon is an area of
thunderstorms due to a robust shortwave that are moving into
southeast MN and northeast IA. These storms should reach Madison
around 7 PM. Once they get east of Madison, they should weaken
quickly since that area is less unstable due to the clouds
hanging around all day. Any stronger storms this afternoon and
evening can produce gusty winds up to 50 and small hail.

There will be another shortwave that rolls across southern WI on
Tuesday. The time of day will be more favorable for scattered to
numerous thunderstorms from mid morning through late Tuesday
afternoon. CAPE values up to 1000 j/kg and weak shear will allow
for a gusty wind and small hail threat once again.

Cronce

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 333 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024

Wednesday through Monday:

High pressure will be in control Wednesday and Thursday so
expect a period of dry weather and sunshine. Highs during this
time will be in the upper 60s to 70 inland and lower 60s near
Lake Michigan. Overnight lows will dip down to around 40 in a
few spots due to the dry air mass and efficient radiational
cooling.

Southerly flow will kick in Friday so look for highs in the mid
lower-mid 70s for inland areas. Showers and thundrstorms are
looking more likely for Friday night into Saturday morning as a
shortwave trough lifts up through the Midwest and Upper Great
Lakes. Another upper trough/shortwave should remain well to our
north toward the Canadian border as it rotates through Saturday
night. Sunday, a warm front is expected to lift through WI as
low pressure develops in MN and IA. This front should feature
thunderstorm chances, but timing and location are still
uncertain.

Cronce

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 333 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024

Scattered thunderstorms are expected through mid evening. MVFR
ceilings are possible overnight after the storms clear, but
confidence is not high enough to include it in the TAFs. Another
round of scattered showers and thunderstorms is expected from
mid Tuesday morning through late Tuesday afternoon. Cloud bases
should be MVFR, especially in the heavier downpours. Gusty winds
and small hail will be possible.

Cronce

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 333 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024

Gusty WNW winds will diminish this evening but remain elevated
all the way through Tuesday night until high pressure moves in.
The Small Craft Advisory will be allowed to expire at 4 PM. There
is a chance for showers and thunderstorms this evening and then
more widespread showers and storms are expected Tuesday midday
through Tuesday evening.


Cronce

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 4 PM
     Monday.

&&

$$

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