550
FNUS73 KMKX 231043
FWSMKX

Spot Forecast for Jersey Flats Rx...WI DNR
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
543 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 CDT on May 23.

Please contact the National Weather Service if conditions become
unrepresentative or if you have questions/concerns about this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...

Steady west-southwest winds are expected today. The lake breeze is
not anticipated until after 7 PM. Minimum relative humidity
values should drop to around 35 percent with dry air in place.
Good to excellent smoke dispersal values are expected due to high
mixing heights up to 9000 feet late this afternoon. There may be
some light showers or sprinkles that develop for a brief period
this afternoon.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent).
Temperature.........61 at ignition...Max 76.
RH..................65 percent at ignition...Min 36 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds west at 5 mph at ignition...otherwise
                    Southwest winds 5 to 8 mph.
Mixing height.......600 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 7500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 12 to 18 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor /6100 knot-ft/ at ignition.
                    Max...excellent /105900 knot-ft/ increasing to
                    good (59200 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to excellent (120700 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon in the afternoon.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth at ignition...max 5.

TIME (CDT)      8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........19  32  40  40  40  40  39  44  34  22
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............61  66  70  72  74  75  75  75  74  74
RH..............65  56  49  44  40  37  37  37  40  40
20 FT wind dir..W   W   W   W   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT wind spd..5   6   6   7   7   8   8   7   7   6
20 FT wind gust.10  10  10  11  11  13  13  12  12  11
Mix hgt (kft)...0.6 1.2 3.2 5.7 7.1 7.5 7.4 6.9 5.8 4.9
Transp wind dir.W   W   W   W   W   W   W   SW  SW  SW
Transp wind spd.12  13  17  18  17  18  18  16  14  14
Haines index....5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
SDspl kt-ft/10006   14  48  91  106 121 119 97  69  59

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (5-15 percent).
Temperature.........Min 55.
RH..................Max 80 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds around 6 mph early in the
                    evening becoming light.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 7 to 12 mph shifting to the south 7
                    to 9 mph in the late evening and overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (27700 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (2400 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........18  4   8   4   3   3   4   6   4   5   5   10
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............74  72  69  64  62  61  59  58  57  57  56  55
RH..............41  44  49  60  65  67  72  75  75  72  72  74
20 FT wind dir..SW  SW  S   S   S   S   S   S   S   SE  SE  SE
20 FT wind spd..6   4   3   3   2   3   3   3   3   4   4   4
20 FT wind gust.10  8   7   5   5   4   6   5   5   6   6   7
Mix hgt (kft)...2.8 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Transp wind dir.W   SW  SW  S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.12  7   7   7   8   8   8   8   9   9   9   9
Haines index....5   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
SDspl kt-ft/100028  4   3   2   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3

$$
Forecaster...Cronce
Requested by...Aaron Wright
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2414905.0/MKX
.DELDT 05/23/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL Aaron.Wright@Wisconsin.gov