Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
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888 FXUS62 KMLB 230921 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 521 AM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024 .DISCUSSION... Issued at 520 AM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Key Messages: - Broad area of low pressure over the NW Caribbean has a high chance (90%) for tropical development as it lifts north into the eastern Gulf of Mexico this week and strengthens. - While it is too early to describe exact impacts to east central Florida, heavy rain is becoming an increasing concern. - A plume of deep moisture may remain behind and keep a threat for heavy rainfall into the weekend. Today-Tue...High pressure nosing down the eastern seaboard today will shift east on Tue. This will maintain an onshore (E to E/SE) flow, becoming breezy on Tue (15-20 mph) esp along the coast. A band of higher moisture across the southern half of FA today will provide the focus for isolated to scattered showers (20-40 percent). Cannot rule out occasional lightning strikes but warm temps aloft (-3C to -4C) and unimpressive lapse rates will limit thunder chances. Drier air will filter south and southwest across more of the area Tue and further limit rain chances with only a 20 PoP is forecast across Okeechobee to the Treasure coast. Max temps will a little above seasonal norms reaching the lower 90s across the interior today and possibly a few mid 90s on Tue in Lake county. Upper 80s/near 90 along the coast. Wed-Sun...Reliable model guidance continues to forecast a tropical cyclone developing in the NW Caribbean and lifting north into the SE Gulf of Mexico while strengthening Wed-Thu. No trackable feature exists yet so confidence on size, intensity and forecast track is low. NHC has scheduled an Air Force recon mission to investigate the disturbance at 2pm today. Depending on the data it gathers, it is possible NHC may initiate PTC (potential tropical cyclone) advisories later today. The GFS and ECMWF ensembles remain consistent showing a upper ridge over the SW Atlc and and a developing cut-off low over MO/AR that steers this system north to north northeast up thru the eastern Gulf of Mexico and across the NE gulf coast later this week. While it is too early to describe specific impacts for EC FL, heavy rainfall is becoming an increasing concern. Other hazards such as tornadoes and strong winds may also come into play. Models show a brief dry slot across the area Thu night/early Fri then a plume of deep moisture redevelops over the FL peninsula late Fri into the weekend long after the tropical system has departed. This would produce high rain chances and a continued threat for heavy rainfall, on ground that may be largely saturated. We are in peak hurricane season. Check weather.gov/mlb and hurricanes.gov for the latest updates, and take the time to check on your hurricane preparedness kits and plans. && .MARINE... Issued at 520 AM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Today-Tue...High pressure will slowly move offshore the eastern seaboard early this week. Moderate east flow will will occur today, with a slight increase on Tue but remaining below any headlines. Scattered showers and isolated storms will occur today from the Cape southward with lower coverage on Tue as drier air filters down from the north. Seas 3-4 feet today (occasionally 5 feet) building 4-5 ft Tue. Wed-Fri...A tropical cyclone is forecast to develop over the northwest Caribbean in the next 48 hours and move north into the eastern Gulf of Mexico mid week. Boating conditions are forecast to deteriorate further Wednesday into Thursday as southeast winds increase 20 knots Wed and 25 knots Thu with seas building 7-9 feet by Thursday. Small Craft Advisories look likely by Wed aftn. Deep moisture lifting northward will support a high coverage of showers and storms beginning late Wed into Fri. Winds will become S/SW Fri and decrease 15-20 knots wit seas subsiding below 5 feet along the coast due to the offshore component but remaining 6-7 feet offshore. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Issued at 107 AM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Onshore-moving showers will continue to affect MLB/VRB/FPR/SUA overnight through the morning hours before shifting to only the Treasure Coast terminals by afternoon. Elsewhere, prevailing dry conditions and VFR. Light NNE winds steadily veer toward the E through the day. A few gusts 12-18 KT in the afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 89 75 90 76 / 0 0 10 0 MCO 91 74 92 76 / 10 0 10 0 MLB 89 78 89 79 / 20 0 10 10 VRB 89 76 90 78 / 30 10 20 20 LEE 92 73 93 76 / 0 0 10 0 SFB 91 73 91 76 / 10 0 10 0 ORL 92 75 92 76 / 10 0 10 0 FPR 89 76 89 78 / 30 10 20 20 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Kelly AVIATION...Heil