Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
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135 FXUS62 KMLB 301758 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 158 PM EDT Thu May 30 2024 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (18Z TAFs) Issued at 131 PM EDT Thu May 30 2024 VFR conditions through the TAF period. Northeast winds this afternoon will increase to around 12 KT with gusts up to 20 KT possible, especially across the Treasure Coast. Few mid to high level clouds streaming over head today. Winds will become light and variable tonight before becoming NE once again around 10 KT. Breeze conditions are expected to develop Friday afternoon, with winds increasing to 10-15 KT in the mid morning with gusts to around 20 KT possible, especially in the afternoon. Isolated to scattered showers and storms will be possible Friday afternoon, especially across the interior. Have included VCTS for MCO starting at 18Z and will likely add VC wording for the other sites in later packages. TEMPOs may be added later depending on timing and coverage confidence. && .UPDATE... Issued at 800 AM EDT Thu May 30 2024 Current-Tonight...The shallow patchy ground fog from early this morning has dissipated across ECFL, with special thanks to the higher sun angle this time of year. A weak, hard to discern frontal boundary from yesterday will linger across south-central FL today with moisture pooling along it. The moisture gradient will be fairly tight with highest PWATs from 1.70-2.00 inches south from Melbourne. As such, greatest afternoon-early evening convection potential (20-30pct) will exist south of Orlando and southwest of Melbourne. Primary storm concerns will be lightning strikes, gusty winds, and locally heavy downpours. Some mid-level energy, cooler temps aloft (-8.0C to -10.0C), and the inland moving ECSB will aid in development later today. Activity winds down by mid-evening southward. Otherwise mainly dry elsewhere and continued hot. High temps in the U80s to L90s near the coast and generally M90s inland. Peak heat indices in the 90s, but will approach 100F toward Lake Okeechobee. Conditions remain warm/humid overnight with mins in the U60s to L70s and M-U70s for the barrier islands. && .MARINE... Issued at 430 AM EDT Thu May 30 2024 Today...Only a slight chance mention for PoPs in the afternoon are forecast for the Treasure Coast waters. Most of the aftn storms will remain over the peninsula. Light W to NW flow this morning will turn NE-E 10-12 knots this afternoon. Seas 1-2 ft. Fri-Mon...Boating conditions will deteriorate slightly into this weekend, as high pressure builds south down the eastern seaboard then shifts off the Carolina coast. Onshore winds increase 15 kts and even 15-20 kts at times Fri night/Sat. Mainly dry conditions. Seas 2-3 ft Fri will build 3-5 ft Sat and 3-4 FT Sun-Mon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 71 88 72 85 / 10 20 0 10 MCO 71 92 72 87 / 10 30 10 10 MLB 73 88 74 86 / 10 20 10 10 VRB 71 89 72 87 / 10 20 10 20 LEE 71 93 70 89 / 10 30 0 10 SFB 71 91 70 88 / 10 20 0 10 ORL 73 92 72 88 / 10 30 10 10 FPR 71 89 72 87 / 20 20 10 20 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ UPDATE...Sedlock AVIATION...Watson