543
FXUS62 KMLB 290149
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
949 PM EDT Tue May 28 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 949 PM EDT Tue May 28 2024

Lingering outflow/sea breeze boundaries and a passing S/W aloft
have continued to generate additional isolated to scattered
showers and storms into this evening. However, this activity
should continue to diminish over the next few hours, with rain
chances generally ending toward to just after midnight. Cloud
cover will continue to decrease, with skies becoming mostly clear
across the area overnight. Winds will also be light and variable,
which may allow for some patchy ground fog to develop, mainly NW
of I-4 late tonight into early morning Wednesday. However, overall
confidence in fog development remains rather low. Temperatures
will remain mild overnight, with lows in the low to mid 70s.


&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 355 PM EDT Tue May 28 2024

Now-Tonight...Scattered shower and isolated lightning storm
activity continues this afternoon, which so far has been focused
from Melbourne northward. However, activity is beginning to take
shape across Okeechobee County and will likely evolve toward the
Treasure Coast counties late this afternoon and evening. Where the
most organized storms are occurring, wind gusts of 35 to 45 mph
have been observed, along with heavy downpours and occasional
lightning strikes. A brief cool down is provided by convection as
well, with some locations dropping into the mid 70s to low 80s.
Chance to low-end likely PoPs continue south through the evening,
eventually translating offshore by midnight. The strongest
activity may produce wind gusts to 50 mph, occasional lightning
strikes, and localized heavy rainfall.

Wednesday-Friday...Drier air filters south across the area on
Wednesday as surface flow veers to the north-northeast. The east
coast sea breeze will stay active through the remainder of the
week, pushing farther inland each afternoon. Gusty winds up to 20
mph are possible as it develops and moves westward. Timing will
vary by day, with a bit of a delay expected to its inland
progression on Wednesday and Thursday. This delay will allow
afternoon temperatures to climb well into the 90s, and Leesburg
may approach a daily record Wednesday afternoon. Rain chances of
20 to 30 percent or less are forecast to remain confined to far
southern locations around Lake Okeechobee and the Treasure Coast.

The early week surface front that stalls across the area may lift
back north late Thursday into Friday before pushing south of the
area again by Friday night. Increasing PW around 1.5", a nearby
boundary, and inland-moving sea breeze may provide for scattered
showers and a storm or two Friday afternoon across a broader
portion of ECFL. However, confidence remains low in this ECM/NBM-
driven solution, so have kept PoPs around 35 percent or less. Due
to an earlier sea breeze, coastal locations could only reach the
upper 80s Friday afternoon, with the mid 90s expected inland.

Saturday-Monday...Medium-range solutions quickly diverge heading
into the weekend with regard to available moisture and associated
afternoon rain chances. It does appear some drier air will be
present with daytime highs cooler in the mid 80s to low 90s. This
will give us a bit of a break from the recent pattern of 100+
degree heat indices, but appreciable rainfall looks unlikely with
broad surface high pressure extending south from the eastern U.S.
Overnight lows will fall into the mid 60s to around 70 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 757 PM EDT Tue May 28 2024

Isolated to scattered showers and a few storms will persist into the
evening before convection finally diminishes and largely ends before
midnight. Tempo IFR/MVFR conditions will still be possible should
any of this convection reach any of the terminals, but currently it
looks like VCSH/VCTS looks sufficient to cover this activity for
now. Winds become light and variable overnight, with skies clearing.
Some patchy fog may develop northwest of I-4 toward daybreak
Wednesday, but confidence not high enough to add any mention to the
TAFs at this time.

Weak front moves into the area and stalls south of Orlando into
tomorrow, with winds becoming northerly and eventually veering to
the E/NE up to around 10-12 knots with the inland moving east coast
sea breeze into the afternoon. Isolated showers and storms will be
possible near to south of the front, mainly across Okeechobee County
and the Treasure Coast into the afternoon. Greatest potential will
be near KSUA, so have added a VCSH mention here starting at 17Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 355 PM EDT Tue May 28 2024

Now-Tonight...Isolated showers and lightning storms will continue
into tonight while gradually shifting south and increasingly
offshore. Outside of storms, light ESE winds will gradually veer
south to southwest later tonight. Seas around 2 ft, except where
locally higher around lightning storms.

Wednesday-Sunday...Generally favorable conditions are expected
through late week as a weak surface boundary remains near or
across the local waters. Daily rain chances will persist (mainly
south of Sebastian Inlet Wed-Thu), expanding slightly in coverage
Friday, before becoming focused farther south this weekend as high
pressure builds. Seas 2-3 ft through Friday, building to 4-5 ft
offshore this weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  72  91  70  90 /  30   0   0  10
MCO  74  96  71  94 /  10  10   0  10
MLB  74  91  73  90 /  30  10   0  10
VRB  72  92  71  91 /  30  10   0  10
LEE  73  95  71  95 /  10  10   0  10
SFB  73  96  71  95 /  20  10   0  10
ORL  75  96  73  95 /  10  10   0  10
FPR  72  92  71  91 /  30  20   0  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Weitlich
AVIATION...Weitlich