479
FXUS64 KMOB 301133
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
633 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 633 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the period with the exception
of a few MVFR ceilings/vsbys early this morning where showers have
developed. Isolated to scattered showers and storms are also expected
this afternoon, but confidence was not high enough to include at
the TAF sites this cycle. Light northeasterly winds this morning
shift to the east and southeast today with light and variable
winds returning tonight. /14

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 424 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024/

..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Thursday night)
Issued at 342 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024

Broad upper level ridging remains in place over the eastern US today
and tonight with a few embedded impulses pivoting around the
southern base of the trough during this time. Down at the surface, a
weak reinforcing cold front, which is currently draped across
central portions of Alabama and Georgia, will continue to slowly sag
south through the day. Weak forcing along the boundary will result
in isolated to scattered showers and a few thunderstorms this
morning for areas generally along and north of Highway 84. Recent
radar scans note that a few light showers are already beginning to
develop over interior portions of southeast Mississippi and
southwest Alabama. This coverage is expected to increase through the
morning. Focus will then shift to portions of southeast Mississippi
and southwest Alabama later this afternoon with the development of
additional isolated to scattered showers and storms as a shortwave
pivots overhead. Most convection should taper off after sunset with
the loss of daytime heating and dry conditions return overnight.

High temperatures will be a little cooler over interior areas this
afternoon with lower 80s expected in far interior southwest and
south central Alabama. Middle 80s to around 90 degrees are expected
for locations generally south of Highway 84 this afternoon. Lows
tonight dip into the lower and middle 60s inland with lower 70s at
the beaches. A low risk of rip currents persists through tonight.
/14

SHORT AND EXTENDED TERMS...
(Friday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 342 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024

A northern stream shortwave trough over the Pacific Northwest
today will merge with a southern stream shortwave trough now over
the Four Corners region and move into the Lower Mississippi River
Valley Friday afternoon and night. Deep moisture will spread
northward from the Gulf of Mexico in advance of this mid/upper
level trough and result in the development of isolated showers and
thunderstorms across the western half of the forecast area on
Friday and Friday night. The coverage for showers and thunderstorms
will increase significantly on Saturday with continued with high
rain chances continuing through the weekend as the upper trough
slowly moves southeast before digging into the Florida by late in
the weekend. Despite the increased storm coverage the potential
for any severe storms will remain low and unorganized this
weekend as overall shear will remain weak. There will be plenty of
moisture and instability though through the weekend, with the
best instability most probable on Saturday as MLCAPES range from
1000-2000j/kg and mid level lapse rates range between 6.5 and
7.0c/km. Weaker lapse rates are expected on Sunday as the
atmosphere gets convectively overturned Saturday and Saturday
night. Therefore, we cannot rule out a few stronger storms with
gusty winds and small hail. Again, this would be pulse in nature
and any severe potential should remain limited and isolated.

The bigger potential is for localized heavy rainfall and at least
nuisance flooding. Despite the recent dry stretch this past week,
storms that form may be slow moving and capable of locally high
rainfall rates as PWATs approach or exceed 2 inches. Rainfall
totals between 1 and 3 inches will be common with locally higher
amounts through the weekend. There may be the potential for even
higher totals as the latest ensemble guidance suggest anomalously
high probabilities of heavy rainfall, especially along and west of
I-65. We will continue to keep a close eye on this potential and
refine the location, timing, and amount details as we get a look
at the higher resolution CAMS later tomorrow.

A moist air mass will remain in place across the forecast area
through the first half of next week with a series of shortwave
disturbances moving across the area in northwesterly flow aloft.
This will keep chances for showers and thunderstorms in the
forecast through the extended forecast period along with
seasonably warm and humid conditions expected. /JLH

MARINE...
Issued at 342 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024

A light diurnal wind flow, offshore at night and onshore
during the afternoon, continues today. Flow becomes more
predominately east to southeasterly Friday through Sunday and then
more southerly by early next week. Expect a return chance for
showers and thunderstorms to the marine area by the weekend. /14

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      89  69  90  73  86  71  85  70 /  20  10  10  20  70  50  60  20
Pensacola   89  72  88  75  85  74  84  73 /  10  10  10  20  60  40  50  20
Destin      88  72  88  75  84  74  83  73 /  10   0  10  10  50  30  50  20
Evergreen   85  63  91  68  85  67  84  67 /  20  10  10  20  60  50  60  20
Waynesboro  85  64  91  69  85  68  85  67 /  20  10  20  20  70  50  70  20
Camden      81  64  90  68  85  67  83  67 /  40  10  10  10  60  50  60  20
Crestview   89  64  93  68  87  67  86  66 /  10   0  10  10  50  30  60  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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