418
FXUS64 KMOB 022105
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
405 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Monday)
Issued at 405 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Northwest flow aloft prevails through Monday as an upper ridge
momentarily builds over the western Gulf region and an upper
shortwave lifts east-northeastward from the southern Great Plains
reaching the mid/lower MS River regions by late Monday evening. With
surface ridging off our our east, a light southerly surface wind
will persist, thus maintaining low-level Gulf moisture through the
period. Expect Isolated to scattered showers and storms early this
evening to dissipate with loss of daytime heating, with any
lingering storms become focused offshore over the marine waters
overnight. Low temperatures tonight fall into the middle 60s and
lower 70s with patchy fog development expected north of I-10. With
high temperatures Monday climbing into the mid 80s, isolated to
scattered showers and storms area forecast near the coast to start
off the day that will spread inland. With the approach of the upper
shortwave, convective coverage will increase to scattered by early
to mid afternoon. Weak shear and moderate instability suggests
storms should again be more typical pulse-type summertime storms,
with potential for brief heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and frequent
lightning. A High risk of rip currents remains in place through
tonight, becoming a moderate risk for Monday. /22



&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 405 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Daily chances for showers and storms will continue through most
of the upcoming week. A westerly to northwesterly flow aloft
towards the beginning of the period becomes more northwesterly
during the middle to latter part of this week as the local area
becomes positioned in between an upper ridge to our west and a
digging upper trough over the north and eastern US. Several
shortwaves are expected to move within this west to northwesterly
flow through the period which will aid in the development of isolated
to scattered showers and storms each day. Timing still remains a
challenge with regards to when the best coverage of storms will
develop as this largely depends on when the shortwaves pass
overhead. It is possible that we could also see an MCS develop
and push through the area during middle part of the week given the
northwesterly flow aloft. Down at the surface, high pressure
remains in place over the western Atlantic and eastern Gulf with a
light onshore flow continually ushering in warm, moist air off
the Gulf waters. Later in the week and into the early part of the
weekend, a late season cold front is expected to approach and push
into the area. NBM rain chances have increased in this
afternoon`s forecast with most areas now seeing isolated to
scattered PoPs on Friday, but there is still quite a bit of
uncertainty with the timing of the frontal passage among global
guidance. As we draw closer to this event, rain chances will
likely continue to trend upwards given the better moisture and
forcing along the front.

Temperatures will be hot this week with highs generally in the
upper 80s and lower 90s. Lows will be mild with temperatures
falling into the upper 60s and 70s most nights. /14



&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 405 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

No significant marine impacts expected throughout the week
as a light onshore flow prevails through midweek and then shifts
westerly late in the week. /22



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      71  87  71  87  72  89  73  89 /  20  40  10  30  10  20  20  40
Pensacola   73  85  74  87  75  87  75  88 /  30  40  10  30  10  20  20  50
Destin      74  85  75  87  75  87  76  87 /  30  40  10  30  10  20  20  40
Evergreen   66  88  68  89  68  91  70  91 /  40  40  10  40  10  20  30  50
Waynesboro  67  88  69  89  70  91  70  91 /  20  40  20  40  10  20  30  40
Camden      66  87  68  88  68  90  70  89 /  30  40  20  40  10  20  40  50
Crestview   66  88  67  90  67  91  70  91 /  20  40  10  30  10  20  20  50

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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