039
AWUS01 KWNH 261139
FFGMPD
TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-261737-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0326
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
739 AM EDT Sun May 26 2024

Areas affected...southern Missouri, western Kentucky,
northern/middle Tennessee, northeastern Arkansas, and far southern
Illinois

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 261137Z - 261737Z

Summary...Intense convective complexes will repeat across the
discussion area this morning, with a couple rounds of at least 1
inch/hr rainfall rates expected in several areas.  Flash flooding
is likely through 17Z.

Discussion...A couple of intense convective clusters are ongoing
across southern Missouri and far northern Arkansas currently.  The
most intense extends along an axis from near FAM (Farmington, MO)
to near ARG (Walnut Ridge, AR).  A second line extends from near
AIZ (Lake Ozark, MO) to near JLN (Joplin).  Each of the bands are
migrating eastward and are being sustained by strong convergence
on the northern extent of a ~40 kt low-level jet centered over
Arkansas.  Strong buoyancy and moisture (2000+ J/kg MLCAPE and
1.7+ inch PW values) will continue to support intense updrafts and
efficient rain rates with the activity, and a couple rounds of 1-2
inch/hr rain rates are expected as convection translates eastward
toward Kentucky and northern portions of Tennessee through midday.

The complexes are migrating toward areas of gradually more
sensitive ground conditions from prior rainfall, with FFGs as low
as 1 inch/hr across Kentucky and Tennessee.  The likelihood of
exceedance of these FFGs should increase with eastward extent.
Furthermore, model guidance sustains both warm advection and
strong low-level flow ahead of the complexes into at least central
Kentucky/western Tennessee where well-above normal precipitation
has occurred over the past week.  Flash flood potential is
expected to increase through the morning hours, and could become
especially pronounced where cell mergers and localized training
boost rates into the 1.5+ inch/hr range.

Cook

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...LSX...LZK...MEG...OHX...PAH...SGF...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...OHRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   38209065 37988848 38128625 37748544 36858522
            36058588 35628927 35839131 36809405 37839446
            38179345