005
FXUS63 KMPX 300631
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
131 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain and thunderstorms will move into western Minnesota
  starting Thursday and will slowly push into eastern
  Minnesota/western Wisconsin into Friday morning.

- Marginal Risk (Level 1/5) for damaging wind and large hail in
  place across SW Minnesota Thursday.

- Isolated shower chances continue this weekend. Best potential
  appears to be Saturday night into Sunday morning.

- Another round of widespread rain and thunderstorms is forecast
  across the Upper Midwest Sunday evening into Monday, with the
  chance that a few storms could be strong.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 227 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024

Talk about a great day of weather! Hopefully folks got the chance to
get outside today or will be able to salvage some of the gorgeous
late-May weather this evening. Afternoon highs in the low 70s will
gradually fall through the 60s this evening, with only a light
southeasterly breeze at times. Diurnal Cu will decrease in coverage
and set the stage for a clear night ahead, thanks to quiet weather
beneath a well defined upper-level ridge. Lows will generally dip
into the mid-50s for most of Minnesota, but will run a bit cooler in
the mid to upper 40s across western Wisconsin.

On Thursday, the ridge axis will shift east thanks to a "push" from
the next upper-level trough that is progged to become negatively
tilted over the northern Great Plains. The relationship between the
eastward advancing ridge (and expansive surface high) and the
incoming trough will allow for moisture return out of the Gulf to
advect north through the Plains. A region of broad ascent should
promote the development of rain and thunderstorms across Nebraska
and the Dakotas late tonight. This activity will push east
towards western Minnesota in the first few hours after
daybreak. Forecast soundings indicate low-level dry air present
through mid to late morning across western Minnesota, which will
likely work to delay the onset of some of the earlier chances
as depicted on the CAMs. However, the eastward advance of the
upper-level features in tandem with continued moisture flow into
the region will work to produce scattered to likely rain/storm
chances across western Minnesota tomorrow afternoon and evening.
A more defined band/clusters of convection are expected to
develop ahead of a cold front in the eastern Dakotas tomorrow
afternoon and will progress eastward overnight, weakening with
time. SPC has introduced a Marginal Risk for severe weather
across southwest Minnesota, generally along and southwest of the
Minnesota River. The environment across southwest Minnesota is
forecast to support an isolated instance of damaging wind/large
hail given MLCAPEs upwards of 500-1000 J/kg and roughly 30 knots
of shear. Stable lapse rates aloft and the loss of daytime
heating will work against a more substantial threat. The highest
PoPs along and ahead of the cold front will translate east
towards the Twin Cities by daybreak Friday and will arrive in
western Wisconsin by mid-morning. Rainfall projections from WPC
are between 0.25-0.5" for most locations, with the potential
for higher amounts beneath stronger convective cells in
southern/western Minnesota. We`ve maintained chance PoPs through
Friday evening, as a secondary wave is forecast to swing around
the base of the trough over the Upper Midwest. This has
resulted in variance throughout the model suite, however there
are plenty of wet solutions to satisfy keeping chance PoPs in
play through the period.

The weekend forecast features quite a bit of dry time, however we`ll
keep isolated to scattered shower chances around the area. Models
have focused in on late Saturday/early Sunday as a window for
showery activity given a few quick hitting "ripples" in the zonal
flow aloft.

A better defined "dip" in the upper-level flow and associated mid-
level shortwave trough will bring better chances for rain and
thunderstorms across the Upper Midwest Sunday into Monday.
Indications are that warm air advection ahead of this system will
warm temperatures into the low 80s, which will combine with more
appreciable moisture return to fuel strong storms. It`s too soon to
evaluate the potential for specific hazard types, but it`s fair to
say that any convection that moves through would likely pose a heavy
rain threat given PWATs pushing 1.5" per the blended global ensemble
suite. The unsettled pattern will swing another chance for showers
and storms with the passage of a cold front in the Tuesday/Wednesday
timeframe.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 128 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024

VFR conditions overnight and most of Thursday, with rain showers
and possibly a thunderstorm moving in from west to east later in
the day and overnight. Winds will become more southerly, with
gusts near 20 kts possible around mid-morning. Did introduce a
prob30 group for thunder at the western TAF sites.

KMSP...
VFR conditions throughout the TAF period, with gusty southerly
winds near 20 kts on Thursday. Rain will move in from the west
Thursday evening/night. There is a chance for thunder, but for
now did not include the mention of thunder in the TAFs.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR/MVFR, chc IFR/-TSRA early. Wind S 10-15kts.
SAT...VFR/MVFR, chc -TSRA. Wind SW 10-15kts.
SUN...VFR, chc MVFR/-TSRA. Wind S 10-15kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Strus
AVIATION...JRB