307
FXUS64 KMRX 301725
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
125 PM EDT Thu May 30 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1043 AM EDT Thu May 30 2024

Not much to update this morning, blended morning temperature
observations in with the forecast, made a few tweaks to a couple
locations. Yesterday cloud cover was expected to linger over NE
TN into SW VA, but instead we`re already breaking into our daily
cumulus field. That same area was running a tad warm, so that`s
where the adjustments came in. Today is on track to be a beautiful
late May day.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 247 AM EDT Thu May 30 2024

Key Message:

Remember the nice weather yesterday? Let`s do that again today...

Discussion:

Currently clear skies early this morning as we remain on the
southern edge of the trough, with surface high pressure. This is
leading to a fairly chilly morning for late May, with most locations
dipping into the 50`s and some of the higher elevations dropping
into the 40`s. The drier air is also helping to keep away fog
development even with these low temperatures and once the sun rises
we`ll quickly warm back up to within a few degrees of yesterdays
high temperatures. Expect mostly clear skies with some passing high
level clouds. Winds will be calmer today as the surface high sits
more directly over the southern Appalachians with winds expected to
be less than 10 mph across the Valley. Overnight tonight into
tomorrow the dry air and winds out of the north/northwest will once
again drop temperatures below normal with much of northeast TN and
southwest VA dropping into the 40`s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 247 AM EDT Thu May 30 2024

Key Messages:

1. Dry weather will continue through Friday night.

2. Chances for showers and thunderstorms start to creep back into
the region starting Saturday afternoon. Rain chances to continue
into the middle part of next week.

Discussion:

In the upper levels, a ridge will build into the region on Friday.
On Saturday afternoon, a more chaotic pattern moves in with a couple
of shortwaves likely to move through the region through Monday. At
the surface, high pressure is over the region until a low moves in
to Illinois on Saturday. As this low tracks northeast, it will not
be a clean frontal passage for our region since no wind shift or
dropping dew points are forecast. The front does come close enough
to bring showers and storms and that boundary will likely linger for
the Sunday through Monday timeframe.

Dry weather will continue through Saturday morning. By Saturday
afternoon, low chances for showers and thunderstorms start to
return. Rain chances will continue through Monday as the boundary
lingers. Best chance for showers and storms will be during max
heating but with these synoptic features, activity could pop up at
anytime.

Tuesday and Wednesday, showers and storms will be more diurnal with
most activity in the afternoon/evening hours. Dew points will be
creeping up to near 70 by then and highs will be warm in the 80s.
Forecast rainfall totals through Wednesday are currently around one
inch or less but it is getting harder to predict with scattered
showers and storms that are hit and miss in nature.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 123 PM EDT Thu May 30 2024

High pressure providing for lighter winds today, VFR region wide
through the period. Any gusts this afternoon will calm tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             57  85  63  83 /   0   0   0  20
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  53  80  57  82 /   0   0   0  10
Oak Ridge, TN                       53  81  56  81 /   0   0   0  20
Tri Cities Airport, TN              45  76  50  80 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wellington
LONG TERM....McD
AVIATION...Wellington