Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
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961 FXUS63 KOAX 231703 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1203 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Seasonable temperatures through the work/school week with low chance (20-30%) of showers Tuesday; otherwise mostly dry conditions through Thursday. - Complex weather pattern late in the week, as upper low interacts with tropical system, could affect longer range precipitation chances. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 239 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Today and Tonight: A few light showers/sprinkles and cloud cover over southeast Nebraska will continue to diminish this morning as a weak mid-level shortwave trough axis moves east into Iowa this afternoon. Mostly sunny skies and light southerly winds are expected for much of the afternoon with highs in the lower to mid 70s. Rest of the week: A weak upper level trough will dig south across the Northern Plains and across the forecast area late tonight into early Tuesday morning. This will allow a surface cold front to push through the region. We will hold onto small pops along this boundary overnight into Tuesday morning although moisture looks quite limited. With daytime heating resulting in a bit of increasing instability across southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa Tuesday afternoon, will continue with a mention of thunder in our southeast. Otherwise, a mostly dry forecast is expected while we remain sandwiched between amplified ridging to our west and a large area of low pressure to our southeast. Temperatures should remain seasonal through the work week. The extended periods remain somewhat uncertain as a large upper low to our southeast begins to interact with a tropical system moving north off the Gulf. There are many uncertainties but the overall look off the extended periods is that our area looks to remain dry more so than wet. We cannot rule out some shower activity on the backside of this system as we move into next weekend but forecaster confidence is quite low. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1200 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Winds will be the primary concern over the next 24 hours as the weak southerly winds will become westerly overnight and eventually breezy and out of the northwest on Tuesday. A cold front brings the wind change from northwest to southeast and may bring some isolated showers to each TAF site, but confidence is low with chances hanging around 25%. If showers do find their way to the aerodrome, they`ll be light with little lightning or thunder. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Kern AVIATION...Nicolaisen