127
FXUS64 KOUN 311729
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1229 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1257 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024

MCS is expected to exit southeast this morning with a few residual
showers and isolated thunderstorms that could impact portions of
central into southeast Oklahoma through midday. Otherwise, much of
the area should see mainly dry conditions through the afternoon and
early evening. By late in the day, at least some scattered
convection is expected to once again develop across the High plains
to our west. However, lack of low level jet and limited instability
should limit development of another complex of storms for the
overnight period with perhaps just a few isolated showers Friday
night.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 1257 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024

Somewhat better flow then develops during the day Saturday with more
widespread afternoon convection expected through the High plains.
This will then move east/southeast with one or more complexes of
storms that will move across the area Saturday night. This again
should be exiting east/southeast Oklahoma Sunday morning leaving
much of the area dry through the day. Depending on location of the
areas of heavy rainfall and with what has occurred over the past
several days, may need additional flood watch/s.

This pattern looks to continue into the early part of next week,
although perhaps a bit farther north as better flow shifts north. We
will also see a gradual warming trend as models slowly develop upper
ridge out into the Plains from the Rockies.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

A deck of stratus continues to slowly erode from west to east
early this afternoon. MVFR/IFR ceilings remain in central and
northern Oklahoma. They may hold on at PNC and SWO until sunset.
Otherwise, a brief break with clear skies is expected before
another round of stratus overspreads the area late tonight with
ceilings dropping to near 1,000 feet again. Winds will remain very
light and precipitation chances will be low.

Meister

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  63  85  67  84 /  20  10  30  20
Hobart OK         62  86  66  86 /  30  20  30  20
Wichita Falls TX  66  86  68  87 /  20  20  30  20
Gage OK           60  86  63  87 /  40  20  40  20
Ponca City OK     61  84  65  85 /  10  10  30  20
Durant OK         65  85  68  87 /  20  20  20  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...04