Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID
813 FXUS65 KPIH 260923 AFDPIH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pocatello ID 323 AM MDT Thu Sep 26 2024 .SHORT TERM...Today through Friday night. A weak upper level short wave will pass quickly through this morning with all precipitation staying north of southeast Idaho so no rain is expected. Temperatures should be about 5 to 10 degrees cooler than yesterday. Winds will be in the 10 to 20 mph range in the Arco Desert and Upper Snake River Plain. Highs will generally be in the 60s to low 70s mountains and upper 70s to low 80s valleys. Lows tonight again generally 40s and 50s with some 30s high mountain valleys. A building upper ridge centered over the 4 corners region will push north and expect yet another warmup Friday with highs back into the low to mid 80s valleys and 70s mountains so the trend of very warm conditions continues in the short term. Will have light winds Friday under high pressure. Lows again Friday night in the 40s and 50s with some 30s again mountain valleys. GK .LONG TERM...Saturday through Thursday. Upper level 4 corner ridge axis shifts east Saturday and southwesterly flow aloft returns and very hot conditions expected once again. Highs in low elevations mid to upper 80s and 90 degrees again possible in some locations in the Magic Valley and Snake River Plain. So possibly 15 to 20 degrees or so degrees above late September normal. A short wave passes to the north Sunday into Monday and expect it to cool down and model blends have it about 5 degrees cooler Sunday with valley highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s and much colder Monday with highs down to the 50s to lower 60s mountains and mid 60s to lower 70s valleys so right around normal. Lows by Sunday night into next week generally 30s and 40s. Sunday will be the windiest day in the long term period with sustained 15 to 20 mph winds possible in the Snake Plain behind the cold front moving through. GK && .AVIATION... Another clear day expected with most cloud cover with the upper wave passing to the north. Impacts will again be an afternoon wind increase at IDA, PIH, and DIJ. Expect southwest 10 to 15 knot sustained winds after 18Z with gusts in the 20 to 25 knot range. Lighter winds at BYI and the normal diurnal northwest to southeast variations as SUN. GK && .FIRE WEATHER...The upcoming week continues to feature zero in the way of precipitation chances, never mind precipitation amounts, continuing the nearly week so far of literal drought. Temperatures will be cooler than yesterday`s near record heat, down 5 to 10 degrees for highs, even though many locations in the Snake River plain are mild tonight, thanks to moderate wind continuing late. Another upper level trough swings through on Sat night/Sun, and that could bring some Red Flag conditions, as Sat afternoon will be even warmer than Wed was, and it could include fire weather forecast zones that are still critical when it comes to fuels. Messick && .PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$