Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, OR
Issued by NWS Portland, OR
445 FXUS66 KPQR 291012 AFDPQR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 311 AM PDT Wed May 29 2024 && .SYNOPSIS..Showers continue to diminish today with warmer and drier weather returning Thursday and Friday. A wetter and slightly cooler weather pattern returns over the weekend into early next week. && .SHORT TERM...Today Through Friday...The postfrontal air mass continues to to develop through today as a embedded upper level shortwave trough continues to push eastward. This will result in light showers this morning continuing to diminish through the evening. CAMs are showing CAPE values of 100-200 J/kg areas north of the Portland/Vancouver Metro area (15-20% probability) through this evening. So, can`t rule out the possibility of some rumbles of thunder. Tonight a ridge of high pressure starts to develop which will start a warming and drying trend for Thursday and Friday. Daytime highs today will be below normal with temperatures inland in the mid to upper 60s, along the coast temperatures will be in the upper 50s to mid 60s and temperatures in the Cascades will be in the upper 40s to mid 50s. Winds will start as onshore today and slowly become northerly by tonight and will continue to be northerly through Friday. /42 .LONG TERM...Saturday through Wednesday...WPC Cluster Analysis shows there is strong agreement that a weak shortwave trough will begin to take hold across the Pacific Northwest on Saturday. There is good agreement this will result in temperatures cooling on Saturday when compared to Friday. The main uncertainty in the forecast on Saturday revolves around the amplitude of the shortwave trough and precipitation chances tied to a weakening front sliding towards the region. Either way, any precipitation would be light. Uncertainty in the overall pattern begins to grow on Sunday as the remnants of Typhoon Ewiniar are ingested into the westerlies crossing the Pacific. More on that in a minute. The majority of ensemble guidance keeps us in zonal flow on Sunday, but our proximity to a shortwave trough offshore does vary quite a bit between ensemble members, which influences the amount of rain expected across the region on Sunday and how far south it extends. Even then, there are still 10-20% of the ensemble members that build a shortwave ridge across the Pacific Northwest on Sunday and dry the area out entirely. Farther out in time, 70-80% of the WPC cluster membership suggests the shortwave trough digging over the northeast Pacific will remain close enough to northwest Oregon and southwestern Washington to leave the region susceptible to a moderate to strong atmospheric river, particularly across the northern half of the CWA late Sunday into Monday. While that may sound ominous, we see many moderate to strong atmospheric rivers over the course of a winter season that bring only beneficial rains to the region. This appears most likely to do the same. Nonetheless, there are ~5% of the ensemble members that produce enough QPF at places like Astoria or Portland that we are not 100% out of the woods for potential impacts, particularly given many reservoirs are near their summertime full pool levels and do not have the flood control capacity that they do in the winter. Finally, the CPC 8-14 day outlook does suggest a 60-70% chance for above average temperatures between June 5-11th. While the map looks ominously hot, average high temperatures are still only in the low 70s right now so a stretch of days in the 80s would count as above average. There are still fewer than 20% of the ensemble members that suggest temperatures climbing to near 90F or warmer late next week. /Neuman && .AVIATION...As of 10Z Wednesday, showers continue to move over the region, primarily northward of KTMK and KSLE. Currently VFR along the coast but ongoing showers may occasionally lower conditions to MVFR (20-40% chance) or IFR (5-10% chance) until 16-18Z Wednesday. These chances will quickly decrease as the trough axis quickly moves past our region around 12-18Z Wednesday, so will keep predominantly VFR conditions in the TAFS. Northwesterly winds will increase to 10-15 kts from 21-23Z Wednesday to 04-06Z Thursday for all terminals throughout the region as pressure gradients tighten. Otherwise, inland terminals will keep VFR conditions through the TAF period. With possible clouds breaks from VFR CIGs, along with showers lingering into the afternoon for SW Washington, could see (15-20% chance) brief thunderstorms north of Portland/Vancouver metro until 21Z Wednesday. PDX AND APPROACHES...Expect VFR conditions through the TAF period with occasional showers. There is a 15-20% chance for a brief thunderstorm to impact the terminal until 21z Wednesday. Any intense shower or thunderstorm would almost certainly bring a brief dip into MVFR thresholds during that period as well. Otherwise, northwesterly winds will increase to 10-15 kt between 00Z-05Z Thursday. -JH && .MARINE...Weak high pressure builds across the northeast Pacific this morning into Thursday, leading to increasing northerly winds across the waters. The strongest winds will be off the central coast of Oregon. For example, there is a >90% chance for wind gusts in excess of 20 kt across those waters by Thursday afternoon and evening. Most model guidance suggests winds will back off a bit for Friday, but there is still a high probability (>75% chance) wind gusts will climb above 20 kt across the waters off the central coast of Oregon. Have issued a Small Craft Advisory for zones PZZ273, PZZ272, PZZ253, and PZZ252 for Thursday into Friday morning as a result. There is increasing agreement a more organized and stronger storm system will move into the northeast Pacific over the weekend. This will bring a high probability (>80% chance) for winds to turn southerly and wind gusts to at least climb into Small Craft Advisory thresholds of 25-30 kt. In addition, there is a 30-40% chance for at least a brief period of unusually late season Gale Force southerly wind gusts of 35 kt developing sometime Sunday into Monday across the waters. Probabilities of this happening are highest off the far north Oregon and south Washington coasts than areas farther south towards Lane County. -JH/Neuman && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. WA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM Thursday to 5 AM PDT Friday for PZZ252-253-272. Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Thursday to 11 AM PDT Friday for PZZ273. && $$ www.weather.gov/portland Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland www.twitter.com/NWSPortland